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UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sat, 02 Jul 2016 12:21 am

BBCWatcher wrote:Post-referendum, investors are desperately seeking safe havens for their sterling.


Maybe why the FTSE is it's highest since Aug last year despite all the suggested post-BREXIT 'panic'?

p.s/add: Quite WD40, point well made.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby BBCWatcher » Sat, 02 Jul 2016 8:58 am

JR8 wrote:Maybe why the FTSE is it's highest since Aug last year despite all the suggested post-BREXIT 'panic'?

I don't think it is when measured in other major currencies. Moreover, the FTSE indices aren't exclusively (or even very) U.K. domestic. Multinationals are multinationals, even if they're part of a FTSE index. Burberry, GSK, Diageo, and Intercontinental Hotels -- picking four examples at random -- are truly global companies.

"Remain" campaigners predicted at least near-term market volatility (check) and a weaker pound (check) in the event of an exit vote. Other near-term economic predictions, notably an economic slowdown or recession, won't be known until sometime next year probably. The impact will also depend on where the U.K. looks likely to end up (and how quickly it ends up there). Indicators will include U.K. employment, GDP, and real estate.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Mon, 04 Jul 2016 3:23 am

Haha Merkel is going to take her axe to Juncker [although hang on, who voted for her to run Europe?]
---
'Angela Merkel 'to oust Jean-Claude Juncker' as Europe splits deepen over Brexit response
'Angela Merkel could move to oust Europe’s federalist chief Jean-Claude Juncker 'within the next year', a Germany government minister has said, in a sign of deepening European divisions over how to respond to Britain’s Brexit vote.

The German chancellor’s frustration with the European Commission chief came as Europe split over whether to use the Brexit negotiations as a trigger to deepen European integration or take a more pragmatic approach to Britain as it heads for the exit door.

“The pressure on him [Juncker] to resign will only become greater and Chancellor Merkel will eventually have to deal with this next year,” an unnamed German minister told The Sunday Times, adding that Berlin had been furious with Mr Juncker “gloating” over the UK referendum result.

Mr Juncker’s constant and unabashed calls for “more Europe”, has led to several of Europe other dissenting members – including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic – to lay some of the blame for Brexit at his door.

Even before he was appointed President of the European Commission - against the wishes of David Cameron - concerns were raised about Mr Juncker's alchohol consumption which were dismissed as a "smear campaign" by his officials.

At the time The Telegraph and several other newspapers reported officials worrying about Mr Juncker having "cognac for breakfast" and rolling through long negotiations fortified with large quantities of claret and brandy. ' [continues]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07 ... its-deepe/
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Mon, 04 Jul 2016 9:48 am

JR8 wrote:Haha Merkel is going to take her axe to Juncker [although hang on, who voted for her to run Europe?]
---
'Angela Merkel 'to oust Jean-Claude Juncker' as Europe splits deepen over Brexit response
'Angela Merkel could move to oust Europe’s federalist chief Jean-Claude Juncker 'within the next year', a Germany government minister has said, in a sign of deepening European divisions over how to respond to Britain’s Brexit vote.

The German chancellor’s frustration with the European Commission chief came as Europe split over whether to use the Brexit negotiations as a trigger to deepen European integration or take a more pragmatic approach to Britain as it heads for the exit door.

“The pressure on him [Juncker] to resign will only become greater and Chancellor Merkel will eventually have to deal with this next year,” an unnamed German minister told The Sunday Times, adding that Berlin had been furious with Mr Juncker “gloating” over the UK referendum result.

Mr Juncker’s constant and unabashed calls for “more Europe”, has led to several of Europe other dissenting members – including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic – to lay some of the blame for Brexit at his door.

Even before he was appointed President of the European Commission - against the wishes of David Cameron - concerns were raised about Mr Juncker's alchohol consumption which were dismissed as a "smear campaign" by his officials.

At the time The Telegraph and several other newspapers reported officials worrying about Mr Juncker having "cognac for breakfast" and rolling through long negotiations fortified with large quantities of claret and brandy. ' [continues]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07 ... its-deepe/


How this Joker got in such a strong position is criminal anyway.

After the nonsense he got up to when PM in Luxembourg he shouldnt be anywhere close to high office.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Mon, 04 Jul 2016 5:02 pm

Quite. Odious character too - his 'trademark' greeting rather than shaking hands is patting people on the cheek. Meanwhile a couple of blog-posts overnight that caught my eye:

'Merkel Ready to Boot Juncker?
Earlier today I Tweeted IMF Changes Tune On Brexit: Prior Fearmongering Suddenly a “Better Opportunity for Reform”. In my article, I suggested if the EU wants to reform, it could start by getting rid of Jean-Claude Juncker.
[He then quotes the above^ article from the Telegraph. And links a vid-clip of Juncker's trademark drunken greeting]
It’s widely known that Juncker is a drunk liar. He confessed to being a liar himself.
Other than being a pompous buffoon, Jean-Claude Juncker is most famous for his statement “When it becomes serious, you have to lie“.
Apparently, even Chancellor Merkel has had enough of this drunken clown'

https://mishtalk.com/2016/07/03/merkel- ... t-juncker/

Meanwhile the IMF perform a U-turn...

'IMF Changes Tune On Brexit: Prior Fearmongering Suddenly a “Better Opportunity for Reform”
Now that the Brexit vote is over the IMF radically changed its tune.
Ahead of the vote IMF head Christine spoke of a “prolonged period of uncertainty.” Now the IMF sings praises of opportunities to come. ...
Hooray, with those nasty British out of the way, at long last the EU is free to reform.
They can start by booting Jean-Clause Juncker and scrapping thousands of nannycrat rules.
But let’s stop pretending it was the UK holding back reform. It was Chancellor Angela Merkel on immigration rules and France on agricultural rules. Jean-Claude Juncker wants a United States of Europe, complete with its own army.
...
Key Ideas
- Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic issued a joint statement “The genuine concerns of our citizens need to be better reflected. National parliaments have to be heard.“
- Poland and the Czech republic want Juncker booted.
- Governments in Warsaw, Budapest, Prague and Bratislava say powers should be repatriated to national capitals to make the EU more democratically accountable.
- “No one believes in the United States of Europe” said Poland’s deputy prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
- “Our voice is the voice of reason,” said Morawiecki, “as for many years the British voice was the voice of reason.”
- Czech prime minister Bohuslav Sobotka has said the overall functioning of the EU and the commission should change.
- Robert Fico, the Eurosceptic premier of Slovakia — which takes over the EU’s rotating presidency this week — has offered to host an exceptional summit to discuss the bloc’s future shape. “If somebody thinks we can offer to the European public what we give it now after Brexit, they are mistaken,” said Fico.

...Apparently, now the the “voice of reason” is gone, the EU can reform.
Lagarde is more delusional than ever.'

https://mishtalk.com/2016/07/03/imf-cha ... or-reform/
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Mon, 04 Jul 2016 5:20 pm

Regarding gleeful French threats to take finance business away from the City of London, I'm not at all sure they have the ability to take any of it, however grand their fantasies.
When I think of financial centres in Europe [that's Europe rather than necessarily the EU] I think of London, Frankfurt, Paris, Zurich, Geneva and Dublin. That was my rough perspective of the key centres that figure as global players.
So imagine my surprise to see that Paris ranks no.32 in the world, behind Dalian in China, and the charming Calgary, located in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Lol...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Fi ... tres_Index
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Mon, 04 Jul 2016 5:51 pm

London is a global financial center and not just a European one. So the impact on London won't be as much. Who will want to relocate to Paris and learn French. Think about it, one of the reasons Singapore became a financial hub is because it embraced English. London has this natural advantage which won't go away so easily.

Actually Brexit is great news for non EU citizens like Indians, because now we don't need to be behind the EU citizens in the immigration queue. And we love Britain because it is English.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Mon, 04 Jul 2016 6:36 pm

The French are suggesting that in the event of Brexit crystallising then London will lose the right to clear/settle Euro denominated trades. It's just another empty threat grandstanding to their domestic audience. They don't have the capability to touch it, and if they tried they'd torpedo their own currency.
I suspect this is a 'dog-whistle' position, that's unspoken subtext is to warn not the Brits, but the French anti-EU'ers that a similar threat of catastrophe hangs over them if France were to vote to leave. I.e. it's President Hollande bolstering his own delicate position.

I agree with your points. Most UK school-children learn some French, but for 99% it's only ever used on holiday so largely forgotten in later life. Considering the expression re: the difficulty of 'teaching old dogs new tricks' I'm not persuaded that people already working long hours have time nor cause to go and learn another language to the business level required to make a career that requires it. And having had a few years learning German as well as French at school, German is quite a lot more complex than French IME.

I think the EU pols are still in a state of shock, they don't know what's hit them and have no idea what to do now. Democracy has long been an inconvenience to the EU project, which is one reason holding national referenda on membership has only happened in very few countries. But anti-EU sentiment is rising fast in even some of the core/founding countries, so it seems to be a case that the EU will be compelled to meaningfully reform or progressively die off. [a 'deer in headlights' image floats through my head].

I think a BREXIT would be good for the Commonwealth, as we'd be free to trade with it on UK terms, rather than centralised EU terms.
There are parallels between BREXIT and SG ceding from Malaya. Meanwhile expect the threats and bluster to continue wafting from over the Channel :)

-- I came upon a new conflated word this morning; Brexocalypse :)
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby BBCWatcher » Mon, 04 Jul 2016 6:46 pm

London will lose some euro trading, probably to Frankfurt. The EU was already uncomfortable with the bulk of euro (and related) trading outside the Eurozone even before the referendum. David Cameron won a nondiscrimination assurance for the City of London before the referendum, but that's gone now. But don't take my word for it. Look at the behavior of the major financial institutions and where they're redeploying their workers.

These thinly sourced stories strike me as particularly irrelevant now. The United Kingdom can only watch from the outside now. And the only leader who lost his/her job is...David Cameron. (And maybe Jeremy Corbyn, but probably not.)

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Mon, 04 Jul 2016 9:10 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-referendum-ignorant-educated-cosmopolitan-modern-britain-a7116836.html

The response at the result among those who voted to Remain is most interesting. The willful ignorance of the affluent, educated and cosmopolitan on how divided and polarised British society has become is striking. The voting patterns mirrored divisions along the lines of class, economic standing, education, age, residence and ethnicity.

The debate was always between economics and sovereignty (in the guise of immigration and border control). Exaggerated claims of economic losses, based on macroeconomic models which have failed repeatedly over recent years, to engender fear were rejected. Some UK regions reliant on exports to the EU voted strongly to Leave. For the disenfranchised, the fruits of growth, investment and international trade remain unattainable. Threats – perceived or real – to jobs, and uncertainty about nationality, are powerful forces. The inconvenience of the non-EU line at immigration or the ability to own a holiday retreat on the continent does not concern those who have never had those opportunities.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Mon, 04 Jul 2016 9:15 pm

Not so good news for the Swiss either ....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens

The European Union is to show its determination to make no concessions to the UK on Brexit terms by telling Switzerland it will lose access to the single market if it goes ahead with plans to impose controls on the free movement of EU citizens.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Mon, 04 Jul 2016 11:01 pm

If the EU carries on like this it's going to implode. There is a point approaching where the 'EU magician' is no longer going to be able to re-spin all the wobbling plates.

---- [excerpts]---
'Merkel-Renzi Showdown: Italy Threatens to Defy Merkel, Brussels Over bank Bailouts
Rules are rules, unless of course they aren’t.
Brussels has rules on budget deficits, widely ignored by Spain, France, Greece, and historically even by Germany.
Brussels also has new rules on bank bailouts. Four times Brussels refused Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s request for a state sponsored bailout of Italian banks because it’s against the rules. Renzi threatens to go ahead anyway. And if he does, who can stop him?...
Last week German chancellor Angela Merkel refused Renzi’s plans to bail out Italian banks for the fourth time. Italian banks are insolvent. Arguing is [now] over how to lie about the obvious, and how to bail out the banks against the rules. There’s massive infighting over nearly everything now.
Renzi is now prepared to defy Merkel. And Beppe Grillo, Italy’s Eurosceptic Five Star Movement leader stands on deck, ready to replace Renzi if depositors are bailed in. ...
OK chancellor [Merkel], what the hell are you going to do if Renzi goes ahead? The likely answer is “breathe a sigh of relief” no matter how she publicly expresses herself.

https://mishtalk.com/2016/07/04/merkel- ... -bailouts/
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby BBCWatcher » Tue, 05 Jul 2016 9:11 am

BBCWatcher wrote:And the only leader who lost his/her job is...David Cameron.

Check that. Nigel Farage just resigned (again) as UKIP leader. He decided he couldn't top his Brexit win -- and it is his "win," in ample measure -- so now is a good time to spend more time with his family. Maybe he'll come back again, but this time he probably means it.

JR8 wrote:If the EU carries on like this it's going to implode.

I doubt it, but even if it did, that's not an argument justifying why the United Kingdom would vote to leave. EU countries are still going to be adjacent (or even connected to, in the case of Northern Ireland) the United Kingdom. They aren't going anywhere. The tectonic plates aren't shifting that fast.

Hating Europe and Europeans -- rooting for lack of comity in Europe -- isn't a viable strategy, and it's not in the United Kingdom's own national interest. It's just dumb -- always has been. And it's also "outside the barn" now.

The EU will change and evolve, as it always has. Sometimes slowly, sometimes not. Geography doesn't allow anything else, and it's just dumb to ignore geography. These are countries -- the United Kingdom included -- that have endured centuries of war with each other but that have now found a way to achieve common aims. Democracy is messy, as it should be, and the EU reflects that. (Yes, EU institutions are democratic, as carefully explained upthread. More democratic than Westminster, it seems.) Democracies change their minds. But Europe is going to continue finding ways to work together, with or without closer United Kingdom cooperation. Rooting for something else is folly and foolish. Quibble about the details if you wish, but the core principles of comity and cooperation should be uncontroversial.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Tue, 05 Jul 2016 11:03 am

BBCWatcher wrote:Hating Europe and Europeans -- rooting for lack of comity in Europe -- isn't a viable strategy, and it's not in the United Kingdom's own national interest. It's just dumb -- always has been. And it's also "outside the barn" now.


Do you even have the slightest idea why a vast majority of the folk who voted to leave did so?

Have you ever been to the UK outside of the main Metropolitan areas??

Being in the EU has done almost nothing tangible for them , my parents live in such an area.

Its at the bottom no matter who their "Overlords" are so they really have nothing to lose.

I was a Remainer, however unlike all the Champagne Lefties who are grumbling , I can see beyond the "Xenophobia" and "Racist" reasons for the exit vote. The folk at the bottom are gleaning precious little benefit from being in the EU , freedom of travel / work/ study really isn't high up on their priority list despite what the pompous ass's in the media would have you believe!
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby x9200 » Tue, 05 Jul 2016 12:02 pm

Meanwhile in the EU:
The Brexit Vote Is Making Skeptical Europeans Value the EU
http://fortune.com/2016/07/04/brexit-vo ... opeans-eu/

Not that this is anything surprising. Giving time it will likely move back to the previous ratios.


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