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UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Sat, 25 Jun 2016 9:57 pm

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-06-25/stur ... -brussels/

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said her government will seek to enter into "immediate discussions" with Brussels to "protect Scotland's place in the EU" in the wake of the Brexit result.

If Scotland were to become independent and join the EU, will the Scotts start using Euros instead of Sterling? That will be one heck of dislocation in the currency markets.

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Last edited by Wd40 on Sat, 25 Jun 2016 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sat, 25 Jun 2016 9:58 pm

x9200 wrote:Somehow I doubt this is the case. It's 40y. Nobody can really rely on such memories for any rational analyses.
Nb. Brexit also won by the votes of less educated people so again, this is some common denominator across probably all the EU countries and the States too. It is more about a failure to address problems of some social groups rather than some dreams to regain the independence.


I can remember the vote in Britain to join; my parents getting to vote. The propaganda to join, the leaflets through the front door. The media was tiny compared to now.
It was all joy and hope, a new golden dawn, simply a friendly trade zone, away from a tumultuous decade [x-ref: ask SMS how things felt back then].

Lift the scales from upon thine eyes :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEdurLNANDA
'BREXIT - The Movie | Why Britain should leave the EU' [1hr11m]

I don't know who makes my laws, neither do you, and even if you do you can't change that. Don't you care about that?
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sat, 25 Jun 2016 10:04 pm

WD: Scotland and Wales vs England are 'like Batam vs Singapore'.
This [obviously] was taken into account in the vote.

- ps.amazing how much more foreigners care about this vote than the Brits do! :)
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby BBCWatcher » Sat, 25 Jun 2016 11:27 pm

JR8 wrote:Are Germany going to stop trading with us, stop selling the UK cars (their largest export market)?

Germany has no problem exporting automobiles in the face of 10% tariffs (the most likely outcome if the United Kingdom refuses to make EU contributions and refuses freedom of movement, and assuming the U.K. government matches EU tariffs). Heck, Germany has no particular problem exporting lots of cars to China where there's a 25% tariff.

BMW also has no problem relocating MINI production from the United Kingdom if that's what BMW wants to do. It wouldn't surprise me. They're not the only ones ready to pull up stakes.

Like so many "Leave" claims, that one is also complete b.s. The EU will be very businesslike. If the United Kingdom (or what's left of it) wants tariff free access to the common market then they'll need to pony up a contribution to the EU (with less coming back) and allow freedom of movement. As Norway does. Refuse either or both of those conditions and "buh bye." The offered deal won't be any better than the current deal; it'll be worse. In the meantime, Dublin, Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt, and Luxembourg (as examples) are taking lots of calls, and the job cuts and relocations are going ahead.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sat, 25 Jun 2016 11:30 pm

Blah blah blah - do you think you knew this, and we didn't, last week?
Hahaha


- So out of interest, what is the dreadful fall-out from this going to be for you?
[vs my unrealised loss of c. S$900k on Friday]
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Re: RE: Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Sat, 25 Jun 2016 11:53 pm

JR8 wrote:Blah blah blah - do you think you knew this, and we didn't, last week?
Hahaha


- So out of interest, what is the dreadful fall-out from this going to be for you?
[vs my unrealised loss of c. S$900k on Friday]

Ouch! But then as a percentage of your overall portfolio and networth, I would imagine it is peanuts. My loss on Friday S$2k, again peanuts compared to my total networth of $S580.

Wow, come to think of it your unrealized loss of 1 day is almost twice my entire networth

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby BBCWatcher » Sat, 25 Jun 2016 11:57 pm

JR8 wrote:- So out of interest, what is the dreadful fall-out from this going to be for you?
[vs my unrealised loss of c. S$900k on Friday]

In sterling terms Friday was a good day, personally.

In new developments:

1. Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, says she will seek immediate, direct talks with the European Commission "to protect Scotland's place in the EU."

2. Lord Hill, the United Kingdom's European Commissioner (who also happens to be in charge of financial services), is resigning. Latvia's Valdis Dombrovskis is replacing him. One of the side effects of the "Leave" win is that the Cameron package of negotiated elements is tossed out, immediately. And that includes a financial services nondiscrimination clause that The City fought hard to win. The EU is now free to require financial services firms dealing in euro derivatives and the "repo" market to locate inside the Eurozone, and they're very likely to do that sooner rather than later in order to bring that trading under ECB supervision.

3. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the EU has "no need to be particularly nasty in any way." Ha. ;)

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Sun, 26 Jun 2016 12:05 am

BBCWatcher wrote:
JR8 wrote:- So out of interest, what is the dreadful fall-out from this going to be for you?
[vs my unrealised loss of c. S$900k on Friday]

In sterling terms Friday was a good day, personally.



I thought you were a LTBH? Where you short? Hedged? or totally out of the markets? Or were you into Gold?

Edit: I got it, I remember you mentioning about investing in global funds. So although S&P 500 fell 3.5%, since Sterling fell 8%, in Sterling terms your portfolio is probably up by more than 2%. Your diversification has really helped.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby x9200 » Sun, 26 Jun 2016 12:28 am

JR8 wrote:
x9200 wrote:Somehow I doubt this is the case. It's 40y. Nobody can really rely on such memories for any rational analyses.
Nb. Brexit also won by the votes of less educated people so again, this is some common denominator across probably all the EU countries and the States too. It is more about a failure to address problems of some social groups rather than some dreams to regain the independence.


I can remember the vote in Britain to join; my parents getting to vote. The propaganda to join, the leaflets through the front door. The media was tiny compared to now.
It was all joy and hope, a new golden dawn, simply a friendly trade zone, away from a tumultuous decade [x-ref: ask SMS how things felt back then].

Lift the scales from upon thine eyes :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEdurLNANDA
'BREXIT - The Movie | Why Britain should leave the EU' [1hr11m]

I don't know who makes my laws, neither do you, and even if you do you can't change that. Don't you care about that?

I know the reasons, I just don't entirely like the way it happened.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Sun, 26 Jun 2016 12:57 am

Bloomberg - Brexit Leaders Back Away From Migration Promises After Victory http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -migration

Vote Leave explicitly targeted people concerned about immigration, warning them that millions of Turks were on their way to Britain. The morning after they won Boris Johnson, their leading spokesman and the favorite to succeed David Cameron as prime minister, began backing away from that message.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sun, 26 Jun 2016 3:44 am

No it's not 'peanuts', it's hard to conceive and 'kin hurts. If you'd come down for beers one of those times you'd have seen I'm just a regular Joe like the rest.
But, 'You've got to be in it to win it', or so I console myself. And for the next cliche 'The day is darkest before the dawn'.

But the sky hasn't fallen, the sun will rise tomorrow... eh? :) Or so I try and console myself...
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sun, 26 Jun 2016 4:57 am

BBCWatcher wrote:In sterling terms Friday was a good day, personally.


But of course. If there was one person to benefit from it... :) [So don't be shy, tell us what bets and deals you have 'laid']

BBCWatcher wrote: In new developments:
1. Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, says she will seek immediate, direct talks with the European Commission "to protect Scotland's place in the EU."


Which will be fun, since Scotland aren't in the EU.


BBCWatcher wrote: 2. Lord Hill, the United Kingdom's European Commissioner (who also happens to be in charge of financial services), is resigning.


Who's he, never heard of him? [notice the problem here, vs democracy?]
Quite amusing this shakes your world but not mine.

BBCWatcher wrote:Latvia's Valdis Dombrovskis is replacing him.


Most people, if they've heard of Latvia don't know where it is. [Perhaps I'm eccentric in having been there].

BBCWatcher wrote:One of the side effects of the "Leave" win is that the Cameron package of negotiated elements is tossed out, immediately. And that includes a financial services nondiscrimination clause that The City fought hard to win. The EU is now free to require financial services firms dealing in euro derivatives and the "repo" market to locate inside the Eurozone, and they're very likely to do that sooner rather than later in order to bring that trading under ECB supervision.


Hahaa. OMG, behold, Paris the financial behemoth of the future. And they'll do that within the contraints of their legislated max 35-hour working week, oh yes, we shall conquer the world, on 7-hours a day!
Or hang on, Frankfurt will, a place no ones ever been, with a language no one speaks. Oh yes, suddenly it'll be the new New York. Really?

BBCWatcher wrote:3. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the EU has "no need to be particularly nasty in any way." Ha. ;)


She still thinks she's in charge eh? No wonder she's p'd off. Ha ;)
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sun, 26 Jun 2016 5:12 am

Wd40 wrote:I thought you were a LTBH? Where you short? Hedged? or totally out of the markets? Or were you into Gold?
Edit: I got it, I remember you mentioning about investing in global funds. So although S&P 500 fell 3.5%, since Sterling fell 8%, in Sterling terms your portfolio is probably up by more than 2%. Your diversification has really helped.



Yep, I am. 'While doom, and apparent Armageddon descends' eh? :)
But the market didn't take at all kindly to it; it never likes uncertainty, so there we go.
I worry little that Sterling is down. When we retire in a few years I'll have an income and expenses in Sterling = blah, so who cares what the BBC say a burger in the US will cost me ***today!!!***. My investments derive greater trade and income from outside the UK and EU, than from within, so the dividends/income will now be worth more in FX/converted terms.

-- No I'd never invest in gold. Gold is never an investment, only ever speculation, and if you want a fools game...
--- Diversification. Long both sides, stocks on one, property on another. To a good extent they self-hedge. In such a scheme just keep a solid margin for the once in 20-year whirlwind.... meanwhile just ride the tortoise.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sun, 26 Jun 2016 5:29 am

Wd40 wrote:Bloomberg - Brexit Leaders Back Away From Migration Promises After Victory http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -migration
Vote Leave explicitly targeted people concerned about immigration, warning them that millions of Turks were on their way to Britain. The morning after they won Boris Johnson, their leading spokesman and the favorite to succeed David Cameron as prime minister, began backing away from that message.


It's not about you. It's not about skilled migration [people like you]. There is no change. I saw your channelling this earlier, but really, nothing has changed; if anything the sense of 'empire' and 'commonwealth' is only stronger'. Look to the sky, inhale, it's all good.

EU Immigration: It's about the EU forcing us to absorb the destitute from Syria [Iraq/Kurdistan/Libya.... etc * 20] who've flung themselves on pool-toys to cross the channel.
It's not 'Turks' heading for Europe, it's the deleterious masses from the Middle East heading for Europe [primarily Germany], via Turkey, North Africa, Greece, et al. These smuggled destitutes are downstairs now on the street corner, and at risk of mugging me, my wife [mugged/robbed already last year] if I wished to go to the shop. Why do you think people get so upset about this stuff... because it *doesn't* personally impact them?
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sun, 26 Jun 2016 5:32 am

Bookmark/placeholder. Might come back to this later:

Hitchens, a Marxist polemicist but an often thought-provoking writer...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTH0UrpSu2s
'This Sceptic Isle Peter Hitchens Explains why Britain should leave the EU '
[Don't know how old this is, he's no longer with us]....
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard


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