UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

[Wd40]

Have been following the Brexit discussions very closely. Also, the US presidential campaigns. I read an article somewhere about the parallels and how the "right wingers" are taking over. In all these debates and discussions what I find strange is how the so called "liberals" are themselves so pig-headed and illiberal to accept any view that is contrary to their view of the world.

We had a so called right winger as the PM of India for the last 2 years. Contrary to the liberals and their fear mongering, he has been the best PM for India - ever.

I think a bit of control is not bad and UK(or whatever is left of it) will come out stronger. European business interests will force the EU leaders to settle for an amicable divorce. The sky is not going to fall!

Well the pound has lost 8% and I understand how high the taxes are in the UK and how high the CoL is especially in London. Now with the GBP down another 8%. What does this do to the purchasing power of the people? That would be an interesting question.

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[Wd40]

FTSE has ended less than 2% down, this is remarkable considering the kind of shock that has been delivered today.

No, that's not correct. The BBC reports that the FTSE100 was down 3.15% on June 24 (at the close of regular trading, versus the close of regular trading on June 23). That doesn't sound so bad, but that was on the same day sterling fell over 8% against the U.S. dollar. In U.S. dollar terms the FTSE100 lost well over 10% in a single day of trading. And that's the index average. Bank and housing stocks (equities), in particular, were crushed on the 24th.

European markets were also down in similar fashion: somewhat less weakness in the euro, somewhat more weakness in the indices. In U.S. dollar terms, they were down about the same. And that makes sense. The uncertainty affects all of Europe, and the possible (or even likely) separation of the (currently) world's 5th largest economy for the world's largest trading bloc is bad for that economy and bad for the trading bloc. Everybody loses economically, in the real economy -- and that's the market consensus.

Yupp, you are right. When I went to sleep FTSE had recovered to only a 2% fall, I thought markets closed but clearly they didn't. Now Dow Jones has sold off towards the end. This means Monday will continue to be volatile.

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[x9200]

Well the pound has lost 8% and I understand how high the taxes are in the UK and how high the CoL is especially in London. Now with the GBP down another 8%. What does this do to the purchasing power of the people? That would be an interesting question.

Unlikely anything over a longer term. It's just a turmoil of uncertainty and fear mongering.
As much as personally I am not too happy seeing the UK out, I hope all this mess will create some opportunity for EU to reform itself. It is needed. At the same time I see no reason why the UK should not do well outside EU.

[BBCWatcher]

In the latest developments:

1. Moody's cut the United Kingdom's credit outlook to "negative." That move immediately raises public and private borrowing costs (or at least affirms what the financial markets have already done).

2. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker wants to get started immediately on negotiations and does not want the United Kingdom to wait to invoke Article 50. He says it's "not an amicable divorce" (in case you were wondering about the prospects of an amicable divorce).

3. Conservative MEP and Leave campaigner Daniel Hannan told BBC Newsnight he could envisage a situation where the UK had "free movement of labour" with the EU.

4. Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was "democratically unacceptable" to force Scotland out of the EU against its will.

5. EU country leaders will meet on Wednesday to discuss Brexit. The United Kingdom is not invited.

[BBCWatcher]

You must be joking, Cornwall. What did you think leaving the EU meant?

[Wd40]

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12026860/b ... ave-eu-bad

Zack Beauchamp: What makes you feel terrified about Brexit?

Dan Drezner: What makes me feel terrified is [the following]. You could argue that for a lot of the global economy, certain rules of the game are given. It’s been assumed for quite some time, for the past 70 years, that the global economy was moving in one direction, and that that one direction was toward greater openness.

That fundamental assumption you can no longer hold as true. And that’s what I think shocked people.

The history of the last 100 years has been pretty clear. The global economy has done pretty well when it's open, but when we’ve switched toward closure — take the interwar period — it has gone really badly.

What’s striking is the degree to which a large number of people have decided, "We don’t care. We don’t like the effects that globalization has on our identities, and therefore we don’t care about economic costs, or we don’t believe the arguments that it would lead toward disaster. We want to chart a different course."

The other thing I think is particularly unique to Brexit is that during this referendum, I don’t think you could point to a distinguished expert that could say Brexit would work out fine for the UK, or that it would be an economic gain.

All of the major institutions — public sector and private sector — all said this would not end well. And yet British voters still said, "We don’t care."

[Wd40]

There is a new term #Bregret, lol!

http://latest.com/2016/06/brexit-voters ... uld-count/

[Barnsley]

In the latest developments:

1. Moody's cut the United Kingdom's credit outlook to "negative." That move immediately raises public and private borrowing costs (or at least affirms what the financial markets have already done).

2. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker wants to get started immediately on negotiations and does not want the United Kingdom to wait to invoke Article 50. He says it's "not an amicable divorce" (in case you were wondering about the prospects of an amicable divorce).

3. Conservative MEP and Leave campaigner Daniel Hannan told BBC Newsnight he could envisage a situation where the UK had "free movement of labour" with the EU.

4. Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was "democratically unacceptable" to force Scotland out of the EU against its will.

5. EU country leaders will meet on Wednesday to discuss Brexit. The United Kingdom is not invited.

1. 2008 financial crisis , I am amazed these paid up jokers still have any credibility left ...

2. This guy should be doing time for the tricks he pulled when Luxembourg Prime Minister.

3. Well yes , how to have any kind of trade deal without the rider of freedom of movement of labour ... see CECA agreement for Singapore n India

4. Maybe if the SNP had bothered to campaign for remain for UK then the result would be different , Scotland had lowest turnout % wise in the UK. They got the perfect result for their own political agenda.

5. Whats done is done and its time to move on .... Wonder who will pick up the tab for UK contributions.

[JR8]

This perhaps is the 2nd most disturbing thing (after the equal split of the votes) of the Brexit voting:

The last vote was in 1975, to join a *free trade block* of 9 countries. Most people had no idea then the plan was to create a Federal super-state. Older people have the perspective to see how they've been conned, younger people have known nothing else so understandably are more bewildered.

[Wd40]

http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en ... es-brexit/

“You’re looking at 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” says one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.”

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[BBCWatcher]

I don't think that forecast of City job cuts is wrong. Moreover, the London real estate market is (according to UBS and others) the most overvalued in the world, a bubble ready to pop. I expect it is popping.

It's not just The City, though. Practically every multinational is likely to downsize in the United Kingdom. The U.K. was, in so many cases, the one place where a multinational put its European HQ. No more. Frankfurt's leaders quietly prepared for a Brexit, to get their red carpet ready, and the red carpet is now rolling. Dublin, Amsterdam, Paris, and several other EU cities stand to benefit and have their own hospitality campaigns ready to roll (or rolling). The multinationals have no reason to waste any time. Quite the opposite. They have no Article 50 timing decision to make, and it's better to establish a new EU base before somebody else takes the best location and personnel. They'd also like to take some U.K. citizen staff with them, in many cases, and there's no time to waste in doing that. For now, for the moment, those U.K. citizen staff still have freedom of movement.

[JR8]

Funny how everyone vilified 'greedy bankers' for years, and now we're all so concerned about them and their jobs, Lol.
London was the pre-eminent financial centre pre the EU, in fact since the 17th century. Exiting the EU would be no more than swatting away a fly.
But really, I don't see the terror that you apparently do. Are Germany going to stop trading with us, stop selling the UK cars (their largest export market)?
--------Most recent data I can find via a quick Google---
'Major Export Markets for German Passenger Car Exports in 2011 (First Half)
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland was the most important market for German passenger vehicle exports during the first half of 2011 both in terms of volume and value. During the first half of 2011, Germany exported 382,000 cars worth €6.8 billion to Britain. In recent years, the VW Golf, VW Polo, and BMW 3-series have been regulars on the top-ten list of best-selling cars in Britain. Volkswagen has been the third most popular car manufacturer in Britain with BMW, Audi, and Mercedes Benz also amongst the top-ten most popular car makers. ...
http://www.best-selling-cars.com/german ... tomobiles/
--------

The EU economy is progressively contracting [an economic sinking ship]; why do you think we opted to leave? What are they going to do, accelerate that via immediately committing suicide? Nah, no way.

[JR8]

--- I wonder if anyone has produced a version of the 'Hitler in his bunker' video, re BREXIT, channelling Merkel ...

And here it is :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Dim9Ir9t5M
Hitler reacts to BREXIT

[x9200]

This perhaps is the 2nd most disturbing thing (after the equal split of the votes) of the Brexit voting:

The last vote was in 1975, to join a *free trade block* of 9 countries. Most people had no idea then the plan was to create a Federal super-state. Older people have the perspective to see how they've been conned, younger people have known nothing else so understandably are more bewildered.

Somehow I doubt this is the case. It's 40y. Nobody can really rely on such memories for any rational analyses.

Nb. Brexit also won by the votes of less educated people so again, this is some common denominator across probably all the EU countries and the States too. It is more about a failure to address problems of some social groups rather than some dreams to regain the independence.

[JR8]

What a royal mess this will be, at best. The least worse outcome (per the BBC's reporting/guesswork) is that the United Kingdom will emerge with a status more or less the same as Norway's, as an EEA member if not in name then in almost identical nature.

Ohhhh, dreadful, the poverty of the Norwegians lol. Here are some decidedly middle-class rellies and friends of mine out on their boats on the Oslo Fjord this weekend. What a nightmare they endure on their ... er million dollar yachts.


And Switzerland, such a sad impoverished place.... oh yes, without a doubt.