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UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Thu, 23 Jun 2016 1:27 pm

Bloomberg - Pound Jumps With Asian Stocks as U.K. Vote Day Dawns; Yen Falls http://bloom.bg/28QR3Hp

“Markets seem to have almost entirely priced in a “Remain” vote win, meaning that the market moves and volatility around the vote may be far less than many had been expecting,” said Angus Nicholson, a Melbourne-based analyst at IG Ltd. “Nonetheless, markets are still incredibly nervous.”

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Thu, 23 Jun 2016 2:09 pm

The need for the vote was long long known, the precise date was vacillated over for as long as the UK-PM thought he could get away with it.
Markets respond to the known + the 'rumoured', and they tend towards taking a worst-case perspective on things. So IMO a BREXIT has long been priced in. How fully priced in is one question... Hence all the talk of relief rallies if the vote is for Remain.
The week before 20-Feb-16 when the date was effectively already known, the FTSE-100 was +4.25%. The week following the announcement it was +2.5%.
The Jo Cox murder has quite grotesquely been manipulated for the Remain cause. Before her death most people hadn't heard of her. She was murdered by a psychopath, and they don't know why. Even if it was associated with the referendum how does one judge the national mood on the actions of a lone psychopath, unless for political convenience?
If it's Remain there is going to be a relief rally; how big - no idea. BREXIT will bring major uncertainty; politicians around the world have self-interestedly made that patently clear, so there is a lot of fear priced in. We shall see!

- What I've found interesting is how this vote has forced politicians to reveal their true colours. Either way Cameron and Osbourne are arguably toast. If the vote is anything other than fully decisive a lot of people are going to remain [sic] feeling cheated, as the pols will seek to brush away notions of BREXIT and continue with the EU 'project' as if nothing happened. Who ever wins the EU vote, further integration of the EU might be the biggest casualty of today. And the EU have never had a plan-B.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Thu, 23 Jun 2016 2:14 pm

@7.15am the FTSE is trading circa +15/+0.2%.
That's derivatives, the market doesn't open until 8am UK time.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Thu, 23 Jun 2016 2:19 pm

From the same article you linked:
---
'“We’re seeing calm before the storm,” said Nicholas Teo, trading strategist at KGI Fraser Securities Pte in Singapore. “The vote is hard to call. There’s probably more downside if Brexit wins. We may see a euphoric rise if the Remain vote wins but that’s probably not sustainable. There are a number of uncertainties around, including the slowing global economy.”...
“Even though it looks as though much of the ‘risk of Brexit’ has been priced out of markets, there remains plenty of scope for volatility on either outcome, albeit very much more on a ‘Leave’ than ‘Remain,’” Ray Attrill, global co-head of foreign-exchange strategy in Sydney at National Bank Australia Ltd., wrote in a note. ' ...
[Haven't time right now to read the rest of the article, but FWIW I think they have it about right...]
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Thu, 23 Jun 2016 5:33 pm

Are they allowing exit polls?
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Thu, 23 Jun 2016 5:40 pm

No, the the likes of the BBC are observing purdah. The FTSE might be the distillation of the mood though, currently +100/1.6% which suggests Remain will win... [right at this point in time].

Weird watching the BBC earlier, main news had articles on virtual trivia ... something about a children's school pantomime or something [where nothing of note happened]... weird, and another un news-worthy piece about fox hunting. These were the national headlines: ZERO on the EU!

ps. There's ongoing online opinion polls, they seem to be pointing at an unclear outcome...
IMO if the FTSE is up on the day, then it looks like Remain will get it...
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Fri, 24 Jun 2016 10:41 am

Off we trot at the minute ....

Unless the South East go big in Remain , it looks the Channel Tunnel is gonna get bricked up!!!
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby x9200 » Fri, 24 Jun 2016 10:54 am

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
With such an even split, whichever option wins, if anything later goes wrong you may end up in a damn polarized society.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Fri, 24 Jun 2016 11:05 am

Hong Kong, Tokyo and Sydney down over 3% at the moment. I am surprised how Europe rallied so much until yesterday considering how evenly poised the chances are for brexit v/s remain.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Fri, 24 Jun 2016 11:24 am

x9200 wrote:http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
With such an even split, whichever option wins, if anything later goes wrong you may end up in a damn polarized society.


Mate its gonna get very very unpleasent...

I am very happy not to be there at the minute.

I think a lot of your fellow countrymen could be on the receiving end of some unplesasantness if its a win for Brexit. :( :( :(
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby x9200 » Fri, 24 Jun 2016 12:29 pm

Knowing the temper of some of my countrymen it could be the other way around, but to be serious, I don't really think anything very dramatic is going to happen. I expect some solutions to be adopted to let hard working immigrants to stay, with limited privileges but still. That would be rather stupid to get rid of them just because they were the EU based immigrants. Besides, reciprocity would also come into play. Probably years to go with different grace periods etc.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby rajagainstthemachine » Fri, 24 Jun 2016 1:05 pm

UK votes to LEAVE the EU!!!

Edit: http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

only 8 more results left.
Last edited by rajagainstthemachine on Fri, 24 Jun 2016 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Fri, 24 Jun 2016 1:05 pm

x9200 wrote:Knowing the temper of some of my countrymen it could be the other way around, but to be serious, I don't really think anything very dramatic is going to happen. I expect some solutions to be adopted to let hard working immigrants to stay, with limited privileges but still. That would be rather stupid to get rid of them just because they were the EU based immigrants. Besides, reciprocity would also come into play. Probably years to go with different grace periods etc.


Agreed any trade deals that the UK re-negotiate , all will have the rider of freedom of movement.

Very few new trade deals come these days without some Visa relaxation.

I imagine a lot kids with Polish parents born in UK , they will have the UK passport so it would be difficult to just boot folk out.

The Brexit folk are going to be under a lot of pressure to deliver on what they promised!!!
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby x9200 » Fri, 24 Jun 2016 1:08 pm

That's for sure especially taking into account how Scotland and Northern Ireland have voted.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Fri, 24 Jun 2016 2:10 pm

The lion has roared. It reveals the vast disconnect between the people and the people who supposedly represent them. This is 2-fingers to the entire political class.
Futures market suggests the FTSE is -510pts/-8.06%, ouch!

Meanwhile:
Merkel will be in her bunker planning how to invade. We must be made to pay for this.
Juncker for the first time in his life gets his smug smirk wiped off his face.
This will turbo-charge the Leave vote in several other EU countries; so the question becomes 'who is next?'
Cameron/Osbourne are toast.
The entire EU machine will be trying to figure out how to ignore the vote and carry on as usual.

... well, Cameron previously went to the EU to renogiate some of the UKs terms and got fobbed of with nothing, zero. This is the result of such EU arrogance.
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