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UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby x9200 » Wed, 15 Jun 2016 9:20 pm

JR8 wrote:+1/Exactly! This is why the markets are freaking out. The issue at hand is the future survival of the EU itself.


"A BREXIT wouldn't end the EU as it is, no, no way."
JR8 around 10th of May 2016.

I wander what made you to change your mind, the paper article article you quoted earlier?

Sorry couldn't help myself.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Wed, 15 Jun 2016 10:02 pm

No need to apologise, I know you have a thing with apparent contradiction :) Allow me to try and clarify.

If the UK votes Brexit, then as with other countries who have voted for an exit they will be told by the EU to go away and keep on voting 'until you give the right answer'. IIRC this has happened twice already, France and the Netherlands. So in a way a BREXIT vote would be unlikely to change anything, apart from create a lot of upheaval. The blue-print for the EU was laid out in the 1950s, and I can't see anything that would alter the politician's course. That end-goal can never be achieved via honesty/democracy.

What the market takes note of is facts, perceptions, anxiety and so on. The possibility of the uncertain fall-out of a BREXIT vote is enough to seriously freak the markets out. They have already adsorbed all the knowns + a large amount of the unknowns. A BREXIT outcome is already perhaps ...? ... 75/+% priced in. That is why you can expect the mother of all relief-rallies in the event of a BREXIN.
But if the vote is BREXIT and stays that way then the ramifications are perhaps wider. No more 'Hotel EUrophornia', an establishment that you can never leave. So the bigger issue won't be how the UK might cope outside the EU*, it'll immediately be 'Who is this going to motivate to try and quit next?'.

* And as per any other country that's suggested they might leave the EU Germany has a habit of sending the tanks in, Greece, Spain, Portugal. In fact Spain has elections on 26th June and their PM Rajoy was installed via orders from Berlin. That's going to be another interesting vote to follow... (IIRC Italy's PM Renzi is another Berlin place-man). I don't think you can believe in democracy and be pro-EU - how do you reconcile that?
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Fri, 17 Jun 2016 9:30 pm

What a twist! Murder of an MP. This sounds so unreal, like a movie.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Fri, 17 Jun 2016 9:42 pm

The scumbag politicians are trying to use this as a rallying call for a Remain/BREXIN vote.
Never miss a chance do they... :roll:


--- Talking of a possible BREXIN relief-rally. Headline from earlier today...
'FTSE 100 could gain 14% from current levels if UK votes Remain, Morgan Stanley says'
http://www.digitallook.com/news/news-an ... 12617.html
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby MikeJones » Sat, 18 Jun 2016 12:17 am

JR8 wrote:The scumbag politicians are trying to use this as a rallying call for a Remain/BREXIN vote.
Never miss a chance do they... :roll: ....


Do you have examples of that? Everything I've read so far has been tributes to the MP in question and no mention of the referendum at all beyond saying campaigning on both sides has been suspended. Googling Jo Cox Remain yields the result the the only person who appears to be trying to exploit this (in the opposite direction) is Nick Griffin and frankly if you believe him then I have a bridge for sale you may be interested in.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sat, 18 Jun 2016 12:28 am

'Yvette Cooper says MP stood against 'destructive vitriol' of EU debate
and
'Labour's candidate wins Tooting by-election and says democracy is 'precious, but fragile'
'Christine Lagarde refuses to comment on Brexit ‘out of respect' for Jo Cox as she calls for 'reflection' on EU debate'
'Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, said she was "horrified by the assassination" of the MP and called her a "rising star."
'Malcolm Turnbull, the Australian prime minister, and New Zealand's John Key expressed shock at the news of the murder and offered their condolences to friends and family of the 41-year-old.'
'Ireland's premier Enda Kenny announced that, in light of the suspension of campaigning by the Leave and Remain groups, he would not be speaking on the EU referendum as planned.'
'The prime minister of Spain Mariano Rajoy has written a letter to David Cameron to express his sympathy, and condemned the attack as "savage".


It reminds me of the hysterical outpouring of grief over the death of Princess Diana; it became surreal, and frankly distasteful. Similar to the tone/origin of this message re: the MP...

'The White Helmets, a movement of 2,700 civilian volunteers who rescue survivors from the chaos left by bombing raids across Syria, paid respect to the Labour MP.' Run that by me again!?

And on and on it goes for pages. And none of these people would have ever had cause to even of heard her name before. So the global outpouring of grief and mourning seems a curious thing.
Last edited by JR8 on Sat, 18 Jun 2016 12:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby MikeJones » Sat, 18 Jun 2016 12:37 am

I think you need to check your chinstrap, the tinfoil hat is slipping again. I seem to recall a similar international reaction to the (non-fatal) shooting of Gabrielle Giffords shooting a few years back.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Sat, 18 Jun 2016 12:41 am

Never heard of her. Then, I'd never heard of Jo Cox until this week either.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby PNGMK » Sat, 18 Jun 2016 9:11 am

MikeJones wrote:I think you need to check your chinstrap, the tinfoil hat is slipping again. I seem to recall a similar international reaction to the (non-fatal) shooting of Gabrielle Giffords shooting a few years back.

Mike


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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby earthfriendly » Tue, 21 Jun 2016 3:53 pm

EU may not be perfect. No human organization is perfect. Such an organization does not exist on earth. A major threat that comes to mind........ totalitarianism


http://www.straitstimes.com/world/europ ... tor=CS1-10

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Tue, 21 Jun 2016 4:38 pm

Well quite, speaking of totalitarianism many Europeans perceive the EU as dictatorial. Here is one example from overnight. [some excerpts]
--------------------------------------------------
'Juncker Proclaims Himself All-Knowing God of EU
European Council president Jean-Claude Juncker proves just how scary it is to belong in the EU.
Juncker actually stated your vote should be ignored, unless of course you agree with him.
In effect Juncker anointed himself the “All-Knowing God of the EU.”
The following article came out on May 5. I just now saw it, and it provides a fitting lesson of how Juncker thinks heading into the Brexit vote. Please consider:

Prime Ministers Listen Too Much to Voters Complains Juncker.
"Prime Ministers must stop listening so much to their voters and instead act as “full time Europeans”, according to Jean-Claude Juncker.
“Too many politicians are listening exclusively to their national opinion. And if you are listening to your national opinion you are not developing what should be a common European sense and a feeling of the need to put together efforts. We have too many part-time Europeans.”


The arrogant gall of Juncker would be nearly beyond belief for anyone else, but for Juncker, lies coupled with extreme arrogance are the norm. Other than being a pompous buffoon, Jean-Claude Juncker is most famous for his statement “When it becomes serious, you have to lie“.
https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/20/juncker ... more-38788
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Thu, 23 Jun 2016 11:36 am

JR8 wrote:Well quite, speaking of totalitarianism many Europeans perceive the EU as dictatorial. Here is one example from overnight. [some excerpts]
--------------------------------------------------
'Juncker Proclaims Himself All-Knowing God of EU
European Council president Jean-Claude Juncker proves just how scary it is to belong in the EU.
Juncker actually stated your vote should be ignored, unless of course you agree with him.
In effect Juncker anointed himself the “All-Knowing God of the EU.”
The following article came out on May 5. I just now saw it, and it provides a fitting lesson of how Juncker thinks heading into the Brexit vote. Please consider:

Prime Ministers Listen Too Much to Voters Complains Juncker.
"Prime Ministers must stop listening so much to their voters and instead act as “full time Europeans”, according to Jean-Claude Juncker.
“Too many politicians are listening exclusively to their national opinion. And if you are listening to your national opinion you are not developing what should be a common European sense and a feeling of the need to put together efforts. We have too many part-time Europeans.”


The arrogant gall of Juncker would be nearly beyond belief for anyone else, but for Juncker, lies coupled with extreme arrogance are the norm. Other than being a pompous buffoon, Jean-Claude Juncker is most famous for his statement “When it becomes serious, you have to lie“.
https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/20/juncker ... more-38788
--------------------------------------------------------


Today is the day!!!

And idiots like Juncker really don't help the remain folks.

Shouldn't he be doing time for his time spent running Luxembourg???
Life is short, paddle harder!!

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Thu, 23 Jun 2016 12:21 pm

Markets seem be pricing 100% of BREMAIN. FTSE 100 is already close to 6300. The previous top before this drama started was 6400. So if the vote is to BREMAIN, then there will be a relief rally, but not much. But if the vote is to BREXIT, all hell could break loose.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Thu, 23 Jun 2016 12:46 pm

Wd40 wrote:Markets seem be pricing 100% of BREMAIN. FTSE 100 is already close to 6300. The previous top before this drama started was 6400. So if the vote is to BREMAIN, then there will be a relief rally, but not much. But if the vote is to BREXIT, all hell could break loose


That's not what I'm seeing, in fact it's been hovering around 50/50 for the past week.
Previous high on the FTSE was just over 7100 in April '15. How does change your maths? Anyway, since when would any relief rally be limited by a previous high?
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Thu, 23 Jun 2016 1:05 pm

JR8 wrote:
Wd40 wrote:Markets seem be pricing 100% of BREMAIN. FTSE 100 is already close to 6300. The previous top before this drama started was 6400. So if the vote is to BREMAIN, then there will be a relief rally, but not much. But if the vote is to BREXIT, all hell could break loose


That's not what I'm seeing, in fact it's been hovering around 50/50 for the past week.
Previous high on the FTSE was just over 7100 in April '15. How does change your maths? Anyway, since when would any relief rally be limited by a previous high?


The referendum date was announced only on 20 Feb 2016. I dont think the markets were pricing in the slightest chance of Brexit until then. In fact it was only after the surveys showed that the leave campaign was ahead, when the markets woke up to the possibility and the FTSE 100 and the pound started cracking. The Jo Cox murder turned that around and markets have rallied back to where they started. Now if it is BREMAIN, markets will probably go up another 100-200 pts on the FTSE and then started worrying about China, Fed, BOJ, -ve rates etc again.


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