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UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Wed, 08 Jun 2016 6:25 pm

And an interesting article from 'across the Pond' [US], with some of the same statistics, but several quite striking graphics https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/08/beyond- ... nc-greece/

[final paragraph ->]
'Fed Up With the EU
Clearly the UK is not the EU’s only problem. People are fed up.
Frustration shows not only in EU polls, but in the rise of parties on the left in some countries and on the right in others.
Voters everywhere stew over the economy. We have not yet reached a flash point, but it’s coming.'
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Tue, 14 Jun 2016 5:20 am

'Forget World War 3. Forget pensions. Donald Tusk has trumped the lot with this piece of fear-mongering to end all fear-mongering:
“As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilization in its entirety.”
Has he been drinking with Juncker?
UPDATE: Priti Patel [British MP] says:
“This is extraordinary language from the EU president, and serves only to reveal his own desperation. The only thing that is destroying civilizations is the Euro – which has ruined economies and led to youth unemployment soaring to nearly 50% in southern Europe.”

---
http://order-order.com/section/euro-guido/

Hope Poland are happy with this guy, as to me it sounds like he's fully lost the plot!
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Strong Eagle » Tue, 14 Jun 2016 7:00 am

A graph from the FT...

Image

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Tue, 14 Jun 2016 4:02 pm

As the original architect of the EU Jean Monnet stated:
“Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.”

And then the FT, an uber pro-EU paper suggests people can't be trusted to vote on the EU because they don't even understand it ['duh']. But ensuring the people don't understand the EU is seen as a necessity to get the end-goal through, and was entirely a part of the original plan.

Meanwhile the dung is kicking off in the markets, the yield on the 10-yr German bond has gone negative. I.e. investors are paying for access to a financial safe harbour. Well done EU, great success!

Gross says negative yields will lead to ‘supernova’-like market implosion
'As yields on government bonds across the globe march toward fresh record lows, bond guru Bill Gross continues to sound the alarm.
Early Friday, he tweeted via Janus Capital that global yields are their lowest in “500 years of recorded history.” The fixed-income expert, who manages the firm’s unconstrained bond strategy, cautioned that record-breaking low yields and negative interest rates emerging in places like Japan and parts of Europe could have explosive implications.
[continues]
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-g ... 2016-06-10

Well done EU, great success!
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Tue, 14 Jun 2016 4:10 pm

They are certainly manipulating the currency well for their forex buddies.

The pound is heading down the toilet :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

The leave group still havent said what they gonna do if for some reason the UK vote to leave the EU.

All their poster child countries Norway/Switzerland still have to abide by the EU rules if they want to trade with them... Its hilarious listening to these jokers.

Why don't they just straight out say what they mean .... "We want no more Johnny Foreigner" their entire campaign is based on the fear of immigrants.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Tue, 14 Jun 2016 4:17 pm

Image
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Tue, 14 Jun 2016 4:22 pm

Barnsley wrote:The leave group still havent said what they gonna do if for some reason the UK vote to leave the EU.


Who are 'the leave group', citizens who intend to vote BREXIT? It's not up to the citizens to make policy. The people have their say, then the government have to legislate for it.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Barnsley » Tue, 14 Jun 2016 5:53 pm

JR8 wrote:
Barnsley wrote:The leave group still havent said what they gonna do if for some reason the UK vote to leave the EU.


Who are 'the leave group', citizens who intend to vote BREXIT? It's not up to the citizens to make policy. The people have their say, then the government have to legislate for it.


Actually its quite funny as EU exit isn't Govt Policy, how would the Govt negotiate an exit when hardly any of them are for it.... Who is doing the negotiating??

Therefore I suspect that there would be a General Election and I pretty sure no party would have it in the manifesto.

It would be utter chaos.... Still more money to be made during times of uncertainty , especially if you have "an in" with the ones spouting off.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Tue, 14 Jun 2016 6:43 pm

The government never intended there to be a vote, but to get re-elected last time they had to promise one... and here we are.
They definitely haven't planned on a BREXIT vote either, hence the growing hysteria and wild threats we're seeing now. The markets are in paroxysms not so much over the possibility of a BREXIT itself, but that the government have no plan what to do should it happen. Yeah, and as you say, how will they negotiate something they're so against? Talk about democratic-deficit, a chasm between the will of the people and the policy of their government.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Wed, 15 Jun 2016 12:46 pm

Hi JR8, I am a bit late to this thread. How are you positioning your portfolio now? FTSE in particular and Europe as a whole is down about 20% now over 1 yr. If you include the currency falls it is even more. I personally don't think even if brexit happens it will not be a total catastrophe for Europe. I mean someone has to gain for another to lose right? Why are all markets crashing as if it is lose lose to everyone? I think it is a good opportunity to pick some stocks. But then there are other scares out there China, Fed and BoJ.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Wed, 15 Jun 2016 2:31 pm

Hi WD.
I'm LTBH so I pretty much just hold+observe. The markets right now are not fun at all [for me], the uncertainty is like trying to divine a women, who's PMSing, and run out of her [QE] pills.
This week is 'peak fear', supposedly a buying opportunity. The thinking being that despite all the pent up BREXIT feeling, when it comes to physically voting citizens will veer towards sticking with the known, rather than the major unknowns of BREXIT. So how big are your balls, and how do you cope with a few weeks sweating in a sauna?
I picked up some additional stock on Friday, they look good value right now IMO. But the uncertainty is what is growing. The outcome isn't at all clear. Refer as an example [opinion from overnight]
https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/14/brexit- ... main-lead/
'Brexit: 6 Consecutive Polls in Favor of Leave (7th has One Point Remain Lead)'

If the vote is Remain I expect a socking huge relief-rally. The market has to an extent already priced in a Leave vote. I'll vote Leave; if the ballot ever gets here. My wallet is 200% Remain though. Perhaps the worst outcome [all considered] is a narrow Leave vote followed by years of uncertainty, bullying, threats, back-room dealing and negotiation.

The primary casualty in all of this, was any vestige of goodwill in the EU, which has revealed itself to be the monstrous bullying Franco-German axis that it has strived 70 years to conceal.
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Wed, 15 Jun 2016 2:56 pm

Wd40 wrote:I personally don't think even if brexit happens it will not be a total catastrophe for Europe. I mean someone has to gain for another to lose right? Why are all markets crashing as if it is lose lose to everyone? I think it is a good opportunity to pick some stocks. But then there are other scares out there China, Fed and BoJ.


A BREXIT wouldn't be a catastrophe for Britain. There are more arguments as to why it'd be good for the UK, starting with the £450million the UK hands over to the EU each week. Then the freedom to trade with who we choose to, rather than who Berlin permits us to.

The EU is like some ghastly politicians hippy-trippy idealistic dream...
'Imagine a continent with no borders,
Germany not invading anyone any more since we've given them soft-power already
An EU where the servants can't get voted out and pay themselves more than you'll ever earn
No exit door either, (we know what's best for you so obey or we'll destroy you)...

And that is the problem. If the UK votes BREXIT then the EU will go all-in on ensuring it causes maximum damage to the UK. Like a bitch spurned. We couldn't possibly be allowed to leave, and for that to work out ok, never mind work out well. What kind of example would success be to other waverers [i.e. 'half' the other EU countries]? A BREXIT would show that EU membership is not a one-way thing. The EU's geo-political penis-enlarger would spring a leak.

Yep lot's of uncertainty out there right now. The latest FOMC decision will be out in a few hours [I'm expecting major soothing platitudes]. ... BoJ is a pretty 2ndary dot on my radar. Chinese GDP seems to matter far more these days...
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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby BBCWatcher » Wed, 15 Jun 2016 6:03 pm

JR8 wrote:There are more arguments as to why it'd be good for the UK, starting with the £450million the UK hands over to the EU each week.

This figure is rubbish. In 2015 the United Kingdom contributed £250 million per week. This figure still does not include EU spending on the United Kingdom.

The so-called "rebate" isn't a rebate. The United Kingdom doesn't send a higher amount of money to Brussels and then get back a rebate. It sends the lower amount of money to Brussels (the figure quoted above), then Brussels spends a good chunk of that contribution (but not all of it) on the United Kingdom.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby Wd40 » Wed, 15 Jun 2016 6:44 pm

JR8 wrote:Hi WD.
I'm LTBH so I pretty much just hold+observe. The markets right now are not fun at all [for me], the uncertainty is like trying to divine a women, who's PMSing, and run out of her [QE] pills.
This week is 'peak fear', supposedly a buying opportunity. The thinking being that despite all the pent up BREXIT feeling, when it comes to physically voting citizens will veer towards sticking with the known, rather than the major unknowns of BREXIT. So how big are your balls, and how do you cope with a few weeks sweating in a sauna?
I picked up some additional stock on Friday, they look good value right now IMO. But the uncertainty is what is growing. The outcome isn't at all clear. Refer as an example [opinion from overnight]
https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/14/brexit- ... main-lead/
'Brexit: 6 Consecutive Polls in Favor of Leave (7th has One Point Remain Lead)'

If the vote is Remain I expect a socking huge relief-rally. The market has to an extent already priced in a Leave vote. I'll vote Leave; if the ballot ever gets here. My wallet is 200% Remain though. Perhaps the worst outcome [all considered] is a narrow Leave vote followed by years of uncertainty, bullying, threats, back-room dealing and negotiation.

The primary casualty in all of this, was any vestige of goodwill in the EU, which has revealed itself to be the monstrous bullying Franco-German axis that it has strived 70 years to conceal.


Interesting! I admire your guts to hold on to your portfolio, inspite of the uncertainly directly coming from your home markets. I can take some comfort from that :) If brexit happens my portfolio( India equities based) will also be impacted. I have just lightened up significantly on my portfolio, though. Sold about 40% of my portfolio and will just wait on the sidelines for now.

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Re: UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

Postby JR8 » Wed, 15 Jun 2016 7:15 pm

As an investor rather than a trader I can't see a viable alternative. There is no obvious 'right answer'. If I 'lightened up' my holdings, the way these events often go, then there'll be a BREXIN vote and I'll have sold peak-fear [cheap] and have missed out on a bounce. So although I watch the markets, I try to focus more on the dividend income stream, corporate results etc, than what the stocks do on a day to day basis.

The issue is absolutely ridiculous though. If the EU were democratic we wouldn't be in this position. The last time the UK had a vote on the EU was the vote to join in 1973 when the then EEC was purported to simply be a trade block. The EU today is *completely* different from what was promised and voted on 43 years ago, and naturally a lot of people believe they have been completely conned. Add in the historic distrust of the French and Germans who have seemingly appointed themselves de facto rulers of Europe + the immigration crisis... and here we are.

Edit to add comment on FTSE today vs the BREXIT mood [my bold]:
'However, you have to keep in mind that we may very well get an announcement coming out of the United Kingdom saying that perhaps the general public won’t leave, and that of course would change everything. Currently, the polls have the people wanting to leave the European Union up by about 7%, which is a fairly significant number. Ultimately though, any type of massive selloff in the United Kingdom will more than likely offer a longer-term investment opportunity as leaving the European Union isn’t exactly the end of the world as the “stay” crowd would have you believe. After all, the real question after that isn’t going to be what happens to the United Kingdom, but what happens to the European Union as several other populations around the continent aren’t exactly happy with the current arrangement either.'
http://www.fxempire.com/technical/techn ... sis-343852

+1/Exactly! This is why the markets are freaking out. The issue at hand is the future survival of the EU itself.
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