UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

[JR8]

The UK votes whether it wishes to leave or remain in the EU on 23 June. This topic has popped up here a couple of times recently, usually in the markets/trading topic. I thought it might be better off in a more clearly titled place of it's own.

Anyway, I came upon this film trailer earlier on today 'BREXIT THE MOVIE' [2:55mins]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnwnDn2R_rQ

Produced by Martin Durkin, whose earlier work included the influential documentary-film 'The Great Global Warming Swindle'. It was financed using crowd-funding, and is due for release in UK cinemas in the next week or two. The above trailer is punchy and clear on the case... it'll also serve as a bookmark for later, to see if I can find the whole film online when it's released. Apparently it will be posted up on-line for free public access prior to the BREXIT vote.

[PNGMK]

Just don't come running to the Commonwealth countries you abandoned for the Eurozone when you have another war on your hands....

[BBCWatcher]

The United Kingdom has never been part of the Eurozone and is not obliged to be.

[JR8]

I knew PNG meant the EU rather than the Eurozone, no matter, hence why I didn't get around to replying to this finger-pointing old antipodean saw of a line

[rajagainstthemachine]

What does the exit technically mean for the UK?

[BBCWatcher]

If the U.K. votes to exit the European Union the country would exit the European Union after a couple years of negotiation. Whereupon everybody could agree that the U.K. ends up with a relationship to the EU something like Norway's, some different relationship, or no particular relationship at all. The details would depend on how the negotiations progress.

[Strong Eagle]

What does the exit technically mean for the UK?

Primary issue is end of tax free trading, border tariffs, etc., although I am sure an exit would involve the negotiation of separate agreements to more or less retain the status quo. But why?

Free travel between countries... the "fast line" at airports... no effective borders for EU participants... UK would probably be penalized if they leave... stand in the line like everyone else.

Cross border employment... perhaps this is a reason the Brits want out... but it works the other way as well. Exit EU and we'll be looking at work passes, just like Singapore.

[x9200]

Not sure if EU (as it is now) will survive without the UK any longer time perspective.

[Primrose Hill]

Brexit, really?
Can't survive without EU?

[BBCWatcher]

Not sure if EU (as it is now) will survive without the UK any longer time perspective.

History suggests otherwise. The United Kingdom didn't join the EC (predecessor to the EU) until 1972. Other European countries banded together as early as 1951 (in the European Coal and Steel Community, the direct organizational ancestor of today's EU). For 21 years other European countries managed to run their club without the United Kingdom.

[JR8]

A BREXIT would show that the EU is not a one-way only path; it would open the door to other disaffected countries voting to leave.

Look at what happened to tiddlers Greece and Portugal when they briefly suggested it was possible they'd consider leaving: Germany sent it's political tanks into both, to firmly flatten such talk.

So a BREXIT would be far more significant than just Britain leaving, and finding it's own subsequent arrangements. It would quite probably mark the end of EU expansion itself. Remember that both France and the Netherlands at times have voted against major EU treaties, and were told to 'go away and vote again, and keep voting until you agree'. Those were perhaps the only public referenda to date that have been allowed on EU integration/expansion and both *dramatically* initially failed. The BREXIT vote will be the 3rd national referendum that's occurred, and the UK-PM was absolutely forced, at the last general election, totally against his will, to promise it. If he hadn't have promised it he wouldn't have got re-elected last year.

This is why the entire EU political establishment is terrified of the BREXIT vote, and is making increasingly hysterical and nonsensical threats of the consequences of a vote to leave.

[x9200]

Not sure if EU (as it is now) will survive without the UK any longer time perspective.

History suggests otherwise. The United Kingdom didn't join the EC (predecessor to the EU) until 1972. Other European countries banded together as early as 1951 (in the European Coal and Steel Community, the direct organizational ancestor of today's EU). For 21 years other European countries managed to run their club without the United Kingdom.

It is a very different situation right now to what was during the EC era. Currently the UK benefits IMHO mostly on the general/historical (political) ground - a membership for global stability. For the economy and the labour market, yes, that too but it may be still doable to maintain pretty much the status quo after the exit allowing much better control of the markets. In other words the result will be the UK, much more independent and not paying for all the bureaucracy and subsidies to the poorer EU countries (absent during the EC era) or other privileged labor groups. This may be pretty tempting perspective for other countries. I see EU mostly as a political construct and with the current turmoil, the refugee crises, nationalistic, right wing parties growing in power based on the common EU problems populism (fueling the Brexit too), it may be pretty destructive.

[JR8]

Interestingly the Austrian government recently collapsed, riven by anti-EU sentiment. Austria demographically is far more of a 'core' member of the EU than Britain ever has been.

The EU is all becoming a bit of a magicians plate-spinning trick. One plate almost falls off, gets rescued then the next one starts wobbling, then the next. Currently the only solution would seem to be that everyone suddenly obey Germany's orders... and I don't see that ever happening.

[BBCWatcher]

I don't think a hypothetical U.K. exit from the European Union poses an existential threat to the European Union.

[JR8]

I think you need to consider the original vision, 'The EU dream'. That has been largely progressively covertly slipped into place by unelected bureaucrats. When the UK voted to join it was touted as simply a trade block, and nothing more [watch out ASEAN]. In some ways it has become fascistic, just one example was the so called 'Metric Martyrs'. These were stall owners down at the neighbourhood fruit and veg markets - much like SGn wet-markets. They used to mark up their prices in £/lb, pound per pound. Under EU rules the signage of prices per pound had become illegal, it then had to be in £/Kg, despite many older people not knowing what a Kg of a product was - and not caring to learn by force either. Many of those traders were prosecuted by the state, it was crazy. Now you have the perverse situation where say I go down to the weekend market at Portobello Road, the prices are all marked in £/Kg, but I still order in pounds. 'A pound of cherries please mate' - rather than '454 grams of cherries please'.
And the market traders will still call out prices in Imperial units - 'Pound of toms [tomatoes] 30p! Come on beautiful toms just 30p a pound!'. This is the language and to-and-fro of such places, and has been for centuries, a part of identity and way of life. It might seem trivial to non-Brits but the sense of unwarranted foreign interference in such matters leaves a veeery rotten taste in the mouth.

Very few people know what the end-point is, because very few people have the knowledge and job to inform the citizenry. There is however on the opposing side the entire well-paid and oiled unaccountable EU machine consciously lying to them. I don't recall when the EU last had it's accounts signed off, at least 10 years ago, maybe 15-20 now. The whole thing stinks. And then the ratchet clicks one more notch... and on, and on it goes.

A BREXIT wouldn't end the EU as it is, no, no way. But it would signal that it's not a one-way journey towards complete integration for the EU [under German rule]. It would show that there is a way out of Hotel California, and that's what terrified the Eurocrats and legions of vested interests so much. They're simply protecting their own self-interest, and to hell with the citizens.