UK vote to leave the EU ['BREXIT'] - 23rd June

[BBCWatcher]

It's reasonable to judge the London property market as overvalued, in the midst of a "bubble." UBS's economists have, and I agree with them. Regardless of whether the United Kingdom leaves or remains within the European Union the London property market is (over)due for a correction, perhaps a harsh one.

If the U.K. votes to leave then that could bring forward and/or speed up a correction. It would be a shock to the system, the sort of event that could precipitate the collapse of a bubble in the short-term. Beyond that educated guess it's hard to predict the full impact on the London property market. There's no particularly useful precedent. However, the London property market owes a great deal to The City and its high spending workforce. Several financial institutions are warning that they'll reduce their City workforces if the U.K. leaves the European Union. If we take those companies' warnings at face value I would also expect less medium-term support for the London property market's current lofty valuations.

[calugaruvaxile]

Leaving aside the half-truths your message is full of, what is really striking is how deeply you are impregnated with the communistic mentality. Unconditional wealth distribution regardless effort and work quality (except for the top party members, here the equity ends). With your alleged or suggested EE experience, are you really that blind to miss this elephant, that such unconditional wealth equity was what the EE already experienced? This was exactly the wealth distribution you are dreaming of. Hopefully will never happen again. I am old enough to remember it first hand, how old are you? I also wander what makes you feel entitled to the wealth some other people worked hard to achieve?

Edited to add some comments on your examples given to BBW. Ms Papastratos is free to move any place within EU she wants but to get a job to pay for her living, as anywhere else in the world she needs some skills. If Ms P is good in teaching perhaps she can also learn German? There is huge demand for teachers in Germany.

as i said, you're free to dismiss my stories. they will bite (and actually ARE biting) your butt through your high chair.

you're talking about effort and work quality? this is how people are paid these days, you think? what are you telling me next? that the best product in the market is the one priced the highest, and also the most popular? and i'm disconsidering you???? you're doing this to yourself.

i love the part with "what makes you feel entitled to the wealth some other people worked hard to achieve". what are you talking about? why eastern europeans want to be paid as much as the western europeans? or was the questions about the arab migrants who receive money for nothing? so the eastern european workers are lazy, stupid and unproductive, therefore they should be paid less. but arab migrants are contributing a lot to the west's wealth (even if they don't work) and they should have everything they want? is this your idea of EU? and you're wondering why you get a thicker and thicker line spawning where the iron courtain was!!

[Strong Eagle]

I think leaving the EU is the wrong thing to do, and this image asks valid questions. What plans do the "leavers" have?

[JR8]

'What are the Remainers promising post Referendum in this campaign? An economic Nirvana?'

We don't know. We've never known. The EU has never had a published manifesto; nor been accountable for anything it's done.

Would you vote for something you knew nothing about, under the threat that any alternative would be far far worse?

[Strong Eagle]

'What are the Remainers promising post Referendum in this campaign? An economic Nirvana?'

The point is that over the years, through official and unofficial rulings and practices, there is a legal framework in place that defines, for better or for worse, responsibilities and benefits.

The whole point of the image is to ask, "OK, you want to pull out. Right now, there are XX thousand British citizens living in EU. What are the plans for repatriation if the EU requires them to leave? Will there be financial assistance?

And what about the XX thousand EU citizens in the UK? Do they get to stay as if nothing has changed? Are they grandfathered in?

I've not seen much in the way of answers to these questions.

[x9200]

as i said, you're free to dismiss my stories. they will bite (and actually ARE biting) your butt through your high chair.

you're talking about effort and work quality? this is how people are paid these days, you think? what are you telling me next? that the best product in the market is the one priced the highest, and also the most popular? and i'm disconsidering you???? you're doing this to yourself.

i love the part with "what makes you feel entitled to the wealth some other people worked hard to achieve". what are you talking about? why eastern europeans want to be paid as much as the western europeans? or was the questions about the arab migrants who receive money for nothing? so the eastern european workers are lazy, stupid and unproductive, therefore they should be paid less. but arab migrants are contributing a lot to the west's wealth (even if they don't work) and they should have everything they want? is this your idea of EU? and you're wondering why you get a thicker and thicker line spawning where the iron courtain was!!

I don't know about you and the circle you are talking about, but most EE I know are paid similar as people of other nations in the same work place. Or you again follow the commie dream that regardless the place you live in, costs of living etc etc, everybody should be paid the same?

For the post-communistic countries, the main issue as I see it and what is seldom realised by the Westerners but also people like yourself, is how the whole generations got bastardised in many aspects of everyday lives. Apparently you would still like to see kolhoz workers or factory workers doing nothing for the whole day in their now EU countries with the life-time guaranty of employment (unless they openly oppose the gov). Surely they should be paid as their counterparts in the Western countries. The whole generations are (thankfully were) like this, not able to take any opportunity even presented in front of them on a plate. They are full of complaints and anger exactly as you are, blaming everybody but themselves and hating people who made an effort to do something to change their lives. The tragedy is, this is not even actually to make any serious effort. Is about to realise it is just natural, and can be done without any unusual problems. The part of the bastardising included killing faith and initiative in people and a lot of common sense. The EE was always excellent in education and the education was and I believe still is free. You could and can do a lot with this.

Everyday freedom my dear EE friend is mostly about responsibility, your own responsibility. Because this is what you actually are whining here about. Nothing to do with EU. You have to be responsible for your food, and finding the job and the work you do, and education and for making the decision of leaving your village if necessary. It is not really that much about the ability to criticise governments. No commie or EU super-state is going take you by the hand and provide the wealth.

BTW, how did you get to the point you are now? Parents migrated to a wealthy rotten imperialistic West? Winning in a lottery? Or perhaps you took an opportunity given by education and with a minimal sweat ... ? Or?

[BBCWatcher]

I've not seen much in the way of answers to these questions.

There's a little information. For example, "Leave" campaigners say they favor an Australian-style points-based system for immigration. There's a simple reply to that idea. There's nothing stopping the United Kingdom from implementing its own points-based system for non-EU migrants now, right away. So if it's such a good idea (not really, but let's assume it is for sake of argument), why hasn't it been done and tried already for the over half of (legal) immigration that the United Kingdom fully controls? That certainly seems like a general election idea (and for the UKIP particularly) and/or intra-Tory squabble, not a referendum idea.

"Leave" campaigners have also said they want access to the single market but don't want freedom of movement. Sorry, but that's just rubbish. That offer is not on the table and won't be. Michael Gove has been insisting that Germany will relent, that it'll want to sell BMWs and Mercedes cars in the United Kingdom without tariffs. That's ridiculous and flunks basic math. German automakers currently sell a whopping 3% of their output in the United Kingdom. Tariffs won't seriously affect that. On the other hand, BMW currently exports lots of MINIs from the United Kingdom (80% of them). BMW is even more likely to yank production from MINI Plant Oxford in the event the United Kingdom leaves. BMW won't want the lion's share of its MINIs to be slapped with 10% EU tariffs. BMW can move some or all of its production practically overnight. (BMW already builds some MINIs in Austria, and the engines aren't built in Cowley.) No, the rest of Europe will insist on freedom of movement in exchange for access to the single market. I simply don't believe Gove can deliver what he's promising. He claims he understands German politics. I don't think he even understands British politics.

There's a reason "Leave" is not talking much about future likely outcomes, and it's much the same reason Scotland's independence campaign stumbled. What they've been promising they cannot deliver, and beyond that the "Leave" future is pretty scary. If the U.K. departs the EU, will financial firms pull up stakes (and reduce their workforces) in London? Absolutely -- they've already said so. Will France kick the U.K. Border Force out of Calais, and will the Calais Jungle rapidly empty into Folkstone and beyond? Oh yes, that's highly likely. Will the U.K. economy get whacked at least in the near and medium term, with all the uncertainty? Yes, and the financial markets are already wobbling. For example, U.K. pound currency hedges are already the most expensive they've been since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Will British researchers and scientists have their funding cut off? Yep, sorry about that. Will Scotland agitate for another independence referendum, tearing the U.K. apart? I'd bet on that. Will tax revenues fall, putting even more pressure on public finances? Surely yes: EU immigrants pay a lot more in tax than they claim in benefits. Will the London property bubble crash? Yes, sooner and harder probably. Will the United Kingdom pull out of the ECHR? The ECHR doesn't even have anything to do with the European Union -- it's a completely separate institution -- but yes, that's what the "Leave" side insists on, even before EU divorce negotiations start. The UKIP has taken over half of the Conservative Party.

I really wish EEA membership (or something very much like it) were on the ballot. Unfortunately it's not, and the "Leave" campaigners are promising nothing of the sort. They really just want to torch everything, including policies that have nothing to do with the European Union. It's an orgy of unrelated grievances that lost in recent general elections. The closest available match to EEA membership is on the ballot: EU membership, already with major and permanent derogations (Schengen, currency, etc.) Continued EU membership is not my ideal choice, but it's the best one available on the ballot.

[x9200]

'What are the Remainers promising post Referendum in this campaign? An economic Nirvana?'

The point is that over the years, through official and unofficial rulings and practices, there is a legal framework in place that defines, for better or for worse, responsibilities and benefits.

The whole point of the image is to ask, "OK, you want to pull out. Right now, there are XX thousand British citizens living in EU. What are the plans for repatriation if the EU requires them to leave? Will there be financial assistance?

And what about the XX thousand EU citizens in the UK? Do they get to stay as if nothing has changed? Are they grandfathered in?

I've not seen much in the way of answers to these questions.

Many of these points are addressed or speculated about in the article I pasted the link earlier:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05 ... or-expats/
Obviously many things would need to be negotiated with new or modified legal framework established. This is not like it is going to happen overnight.

[Strong Eagle]

Obviously many things would need to be negotiated with new or modified legal framework established. This is not like it is going to happen overnight.

It really would be useful to understand the consequences of the vote BEFORE it is taken rather than neogtiating new (and potentially unpleasant) outcomes after the fact, don't you think?

Trust us... leaving is good... we'll take care of the details in the negotiations... is that the message?

I mean, wasn't this the southern states strategy, pre civil war... we're outha here... details at 6 o'clock?

[x9200]

Obviously many things would need to be negotiated with new or modified legal framework established. This is not like it is going to happen overnight.

It really would be useful to understand the consequences of the vote BEFORE it is taken rather than neogtiating new (and potentially unpleasant) outcomes after the fact, don't you think?

Of course, fully agree, but then not everything can be set before the decision is made and many things will depend on what is going to happen at the negotiation table. The other members of EU sort of pretend at this moment the Brexit is not going to happen so I believe any solid base for such negotiation and building the said legal framework may happen after the staus quo changes.

Trust us... leaving is good... we'll take care of the details in the negotiations... is that the message?

I see it more like "we don't want to be that politically dependant and forced to pay for something we don't like to pay for". I don't really see they say it will be all good, just it will not be a disaster. The "stayers" are somehow more apocalyptic in their forecasts than "the leavers" in their hurray optimism . My impression at least.

[Barnsley]

If the UK vote to leave there will be a General Election before the end of the year.

There would be a lot of issues is UK vote leave at the good folks of Scotland/Wales/Northern Ireland vote to remain

Nothing will happen until then as quite a lot of the cabinet including the Prime Minister are in the remain camp.

The "Brexit" folk haven't come up with anything concrete on what will be "the plan" should the UK leave, though to be fair the "Bremain" group haven't really said much either, both sides seem to be competing to see who can come up with the best scare story.

[MikeJones]

If the UK vote to leave there will be a General Election before the end of the year.

There would be a lot of issues is UK vote leave at the good folks of Scotland/Wales/Northern Ireland vote to remain

Nothing will happen until then as quite a lot of the cabinet including the Prime Minister are in the remain camp.

The "Brexit" folk haven't come up with anything concrete on what will be "the plan" should the UK leave, though to be fair the "Bremain" group haven't really said much either, both sides seem to be competing to see who can come up with the best scare story.

Well there'd definitely be a new PM, but not necessarily an election as they'd first have to either repeal or suspend the fixed term parliaments act, it would be interesting to see if the opposition thought it worthwhile doing that or letting a divided Conservative government try and limp on in the hope they tear themselves apart and get less and less popular.

Mike

[JR8]

It really would be useful to understand the consequences of the vote BEFORE it is taken rather than neogtiating new (and potentially unpleasant) outcomes after the fact, don't you think?

And what channels are funded by the establishment to broadcast such a message? None.
So it'd be 'useful' to know this, and yet the state as is are willing to take us to this brink you suggest is calamitous for ourselves. Doesn't seem wise does it? Is it arrogance, that they'll somehow ram it through over the people as usual?
But on the flipside of your point, no one understands the consequences nor end-point of the EU, because throughout it's history it's path has been consciously carefully concealed and lied about from the citizenry. [So much easier prior to free mass media, internet and so on, when the citizens could be easily scared and shepherded in the way 'we' wanted them to go...]

-- Interesting post X9. Esp the reality/suggestion that equality doesn't somehow help 'float all boats' but instead inadvertently usually ends up nuking the entire bloody harbour.

[ScoobyDoes]

There would be a lot of issues is UK vote leave at the good folks of Scotland/Wales/Northern Ireland vote to remain

That's the stupid thing that goes back to the Independence Referendum I didn't fully get from the SNP; "We want to be fully independent from the UK to decide our own future......but, um, remain in the EU and let them decide on things we still won't be allowed to do."

There is, of course, pros and cons from both arguments but the problem I have is the Ins and Outs are taking a very short sighted view of what will happen. On one side, Sterling will drop 20%, mortgage rates would go through the roof, unemployment will sky rocket, FDI would drop etc. but while all this MIGHT be correct, its a relatively short term impact based on a 1-200yr outlook. The same is true in the reverse.

I'm flying from Edinburgh back to here on 24th so we'll see if on that Saturday my passport still works when I arrive back

[JR8]

I'm flying from Edinburgh back to here on 24th so we'll see if on that Saturday my passport still works when I arrive back

Ah visiting for their one day of summer? Actually that's mid-summers day, so you might be in luck.

Meanwhile it seems that it's not just the Brits you are growing weary of the EU, the French are even more so...
-------------------
'France shuns Europe as Brexit revolt spreads
France has turned even more viscerally eurosceptic than Britain over recent months, profoundly altering the political geography of Europe and making it impossible to judge how Paris might respond to Brexit.
An intractable economic crisis has been eating away at the legitimacy of the French governing elites for much of this decade. This has now combined with a collapse in the credibility of the government, and mounting anger over immigration.
A pan-European survey by the Pew Research Center released today found that 61pc of French voters have an “unfavourable” view, compared to 48pc in the UK.
A clear majority is opposed to “ever closer union” and wants powers returned to the French parliament, a finding that sits badly with the insistence by President Francois Hollande that “more Europe” is the answer to the EU’s woes.
“It is a protest against the elites,” said Professor Brigitte Granville, a French economist at Queen Mary University of London. “There are 5000 people in charge of everything in France. They are all linked by school and marriage, and they are tight.”
Prof Granville said the mechanisms of monetary union have upset the Franco-German strategic marriage, wounding the French psyche. “The EU was sold to the French people as a `partnership’ of equals with Germany. But it has been very clear since 2010 that this is not the case. Everybody could see that Germany decided everything in Greece,” she said.
The death of the Monnet dream in the EU’s anchor state poses an existential threat to the European project and is running in parallel to what is happening in Britain. ...
The Front National’s Marine Le Pen is leading the polls for the presidential elections in 2017 with vows to restore the French franc and smash the EU edifice....
“The EU policy elites are in panic. If the British vote to leave the shock will be so ghastly that they will finally wake up and realize that they can no longer ignore demands for democratic reform,” he said. “They may have to dissolve the EU as it is and try to reinvent it, both in order to bring the Brits back and because they fear that the whole political order will be swept away unless they do,”...
The Pew survey shows that dissatisfaction with the EU has risen to 49pc in Spain and 48pc in Germany, two countries normally seen as pro-European. This is roughly the same as in Britain, though different in character and less intense.
France has always had a eurosceptic core and rejected the European constitution in 2005 by a large margin, but this mood is increasingly tied to the rise of the Front National. [continues]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... t-spreads/