When is a good time to enter Singapore Property Market

[Wd40]

http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/ ... laxed-soon

ABSD for foreigners could be reduced, but only for properties above certain price. Looks like they want restore some of the lost glory of the Sentosa properties

[Wd40]

More scare mongering

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/high- ... 42602.html

Let’s take the case of the Tans, a young professional couple who bought their dream condo for $2 million (before the TDSR rules came into effect). They took an 80% loan ($1.6 million) with a 30-year tenor. With the current low floating mortgage rate of 1.2%, their monthly payment is $5,294, a manageable 50% of their total household income.
Fast forward a couple of years, when the Fed has raised rates and mortgage rates in Singapore have returned to their long term average of around 4%. The monthly payment will get re-priced upwards to $7,639, and now accounts for a hefty 72% of their household income (assuming no pay increments). This represents a 44% increase.
The Tan are starting to sweat, and are barely making ends meet. And what if someone lost his or her job? Not to mention that this rise in rates is coupled with weak rentals and record completions, and property prices falling every quarter.
Sadly, we are approaching a time where this hypothetical scenario could become much more realistic.

[JR8]

ABSD for foreigners could be reduced, but only for properties above certain price. Looks like they want restore some of the lost glory of the Sentosa properties

High-end developers feeling the pinch at their bottom-line?

[JR8]

They took an 80% loan ($1.6 million) with a 30-year tenor.

Ah so they bought together with an opera singer issit?

Tenure

[maneo]

They took an 80% loan ($1.6 million) with a 30-year tenor.

Ah so they bought together with an opera singer issit?

Tenure

It is a very common misuse in the residential loan community.

[jasonchongg]

To be honest, I think the best time to purchase is long gone - that was back in the 1970s and very early 1980s. If you had bought properties then, it would have had experienced amazing appreciation. Now? Your relative ROI would be low. I recommend you invest in properties in other countries.

[maneo]

End of 2008 was also a good time to buy.

Next downturn may happen in a year or so, but unless there's another global financial crisis, it's not likely to be as deep as 2008.

[sundaymorningstaple]

January and February, 1999 was an excellent time to buy as well. It was the tail end of the 1997 Asian Financial Meltdown and the property market literally melted as well. I know. I bought in January. Paid it off August a year ago. Bought it a valuation.

[JR8]

I don't think looking back has any value; I mean I can say 1993-5 was the time to fill your boots, but it won't help you now.

What matters more is looking at an investment proposition today, and asking if it clears your personal hurdles, i.e. the hurdles that will get you to your lifetime goals.

I don't know to what extent people think about it like this. I used to just go at it hammer+tongs, without having any goal in mind. It was quite intimidating to have to consider it in more granular terms.
More recently I've figured out at what age I wish to pack it in ('retire'). And what household income I'm going to need (baseline), and secondly, what I'd aspire to - a pretty thought-provoking process in itself, when you go and 'cost' your future retirement, line by line. How many holidays will you wish for p/a in 10 years time, and what might they cost? and that restaurant bills? .... etc
[a similar ethos can be found here: http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/ - there's a cost of living/retirement estimator somewhere on that site ]

... still feels like something of an 'Apollo mission'. We're up there and headed for the stars. We've got the bearings, just not quite sure where we'll land yet, but fingers crossed

[maneo]

One looks back to see if there are patterns.

One such pattern is that downturns seem to happen about every 7-8 years or so.
It's not precise and the extent of each drop varies, but if one is at a point in one's life where acquiring a home makes sense, then waiting for such a moment can help preserve one's capital or get more for what one has.

Next downturn should be in a year or so.


As for the Apollo missions, those were much more well planned and in far more detail than any of our lives seem to be.
Perhaps a better analogy would be that of Cristoforo Colombo sailing westward in 1492.
He managed to luck out (with regards to prevailing winds) and actually find something and return.
Wonder if there were others that didn't.

[PNGMK]

I was talking to someone who managed to exit Dubai property at the right time with all of his capital and some appreciation intact.... that was very scary according to him. I think Singapore may unfortunately be in the same boat for a little while. If you got in early at a good price - great. Just remember this is a very illiquid market.

[PNGMK]

Oh and comments on ABSD.... have you ever seen a government give up a tax easily? No way.

[JR8]

1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001...'Ooh look, the pattern, THE PATTERN!!' [...then nothing for 15 years....]. Well that rained on your historical pattern theory, eh what
And I vehemently disagree with trying to time the market, any market. It's pitched as some kind of 'pro skill', and it's not, it's a mugs game. I've mentioned the adage before > 'It's time in the market, not timing the market'.
I've been on one general-financial forum since about '95. One guy got hammered by the .com bust, lost his house etc. For ever after he was like Jeremiah crying from the tower-top over impending doom. It never came, and yet each day for years he was out preaching doom, whilst the regulars were out doing property dealing/development and banking it. The fact is most people who aren't going crazy with 100/+% loans just weather it out. The headlines are all hell and torture, but underneath people are just getting along with things. 'My house was notionally worth X% last year, now it's notionally worth X-10%, that's ok, it's all pretty meaningless in the greater scheme of things'.

[JR8]

...[Dupe/MYSQLI Error]

[maneo]

1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001...'Ooh look, the pattern, THE PATTERN!!' [...then nothing for 15 years....]. Well that rained on your historical pattern theory, eh what

"...then nothing for 15 years" ???
Wasn't there a bit of a downturn in the prоpertу market in 2008-2009?
According to my math that happens to be about 7-8 years after the 2001 downturn.


Not sure where you came up with the specific years for your pattern.
From the SG Prоpertу Price Index (PPI) trend, the best years to buy in the past 40 years were 1978-1979, 1986-1993, 1998, 2004-2006, and end of 2008-2009.
These were the years where the SG PPI was at the low edge of the upward trend channel.
The year 1995 is not included – instead there was a bubble in 1993-1996, so the eventual downturn came a few years later.

And I vehemently disagree with trying to time the market, any market. It's pitched as some kind of 'pro skill', and it's not, it's a mugs game. I've mentioned the adage before > 'It's time in the market, not timing the market'.

In general, I agree about trying to time investments.
Very few can pull this off, and it is not reproducible, nor is it transferrable.
Most people that try to time markets miss optimal entry and exit points and end up losing money not only on the trades, but on the extra commissions, too.

However, the issue here is about рrоpertу.
The decision to buy рrоpertу is usually based on other factors (location, need, ideal home availability, etc.).

With such high prices involved, where the need to buy рrоpertу is not immediate, then it may make sense to either jump in or wait a little while based on market conditions in order to maximise what one can buy for one’s budget. People are no longer holding рrоpertу for a generation or more, so buying just before a known downturn does not make sense.

There are a lot of buyers waiting now and it’s not because they’re following a price trend pattern.
They are aware of the fundamental factors. There is a high supply expected from new project completions in the next year or so, combined with the cooling measures removing most foreign buyers from the demand side that are pushing prices down. The expectation is another 10-15% drop.

There used to be quite a few trend charts on a site called singaporepropertуcycle showing all this, but the site is no longer accessible. However, there is a Facebook page that captured many of the charts. One of the most interesting is one showing the population to housing inventory ratio dropping 8-10% this year. The economics of supply vs. demand in one chart.

So, in answer to the original question, if they don't have an immediate need to buy рrоpertу, then it may be wise for them to wait until the 10% drop occurs.