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Some interesting currency moves today

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calugaruvaxile
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby calugaruvaxile » Wed, 14 Oct 2015 6:48 am

Strong Eagle wrote:An interesting take from The Guardian... http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... -recession


i think money flow out of china simply due to the ever-lower return. china was attractive at it could produce cheaply, "reasonably poor"-quality products. in time, china became expensive and the "reasonably-poor" quality goods became more and more difficult to sell.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Wed, 14 Oct 2015 5:01 pm

China sneezes, regional trading partners catch a cold.

SG is on the cusp of recession.
http://www.ig.com/uk/market-update/2015 ... licy-28236

I was joking with my wife just this morning about SGs love of acronyms. The above article includes one I hadn't heard before; the S$NEER [*]. Used by the MAS as a guide to fiscal policy measures.

It gets curiouser still. The S$NEER plots as a line on an XY-graph, and the derivative of the S$NEER that MAS monitors is it's slope. Hence...

---
'As such, the slope of the S$NEER policy band is reduced slightly. There was no change to the width and centre of the policy band. The policy decision was a continuation of the surprise move to reduce the slope in January this year.'
---

* 'sneer 1. a contemptuous or mocking smile, remark, or tone.'
Example: I was pleased to see karma playing out, as the sneery little gobshite got his head kicked in...' :cool: :lol:
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Wed, 14 Oct 2015 6:49 pm

NEER is nominal effective exchange rate. It is just SGD vs USD. The other one is REER which means Real effective exchange rate which measure SGD vs a basket of currencies and taking into account the inflation differentials.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby earthfriendly » Thu, 15 Oct 2015 2:11 am

We are all playing in the same ring, unless there is a new frontier where new money can be made.....................like Mars :) .


You get smarter and smarter hedge fund managers and they are a brilliant group.....but they can't all beat each other. That's the law of averages. So the competition for price discovery seems to make it more difficult


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jack-bogl ... 27705.html

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Thu, 15 Oct 2015 2:18 am

If we're all in the same ring, then you have to accept there's no point paying someone 5%pa for trying to be 5%+ better than it.
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Brah » Thu, 15 Oct 2015 8:20 pm

Maybe not the right forum but the right audience. Chuckle.

In its quest for growth, BofA reportedly hired 165 wealth management graduates this year – the highest number ever. Cynics might suggest the sudden enthusiasm for wealth management hires has more to do with banks’ interest in increasing deposits as a stable source of funding than any revenue opportunity. Either way, it looks like good news if you’re a 20 year-something who wants to advise baby boomers on how to invest the proceeds of selling the family home
Ape Shall Not Kill Ape.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby earthfriendly » Sat, 17 Oct 2015 9:59 am

At age 86, he has seen it all.......

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13326091 ... eless.html

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Thu, 22 Oct 2015 5:46 pm

JR8 wrote:... the Greeks don't want to be in the Euro; but will Germany let them leave? Not a chance. How to resolve that one? Portugal, Spain, and Italy will be looking on with interest since each of them has strong anti-euro movements that would be markedly empowered if Grexit happens.


I forgot when I'd written the above - as recently as July it seems...
Meanwhile this week Portugal is on the cusp of imploding.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... cency.html
'Defiant Portugal shatters the eurozone's political complacency
Brussels faces a second anti-austerity revolt as the Portuguese Left tears up the script and demands the right to govern

The delayed fuse on the eurozone's debt-deflation policies has finally detonated in a second country. Portugal has joined the revolt against austerity.

The rickety scaffolding of fiscal discipline and economic surveillance imposed on southern Europe by Germany is falling apart on its most vulnerable front.

Antonio Costa, Portugal's Socialist leader and son of a Goan poet, has refused to go along with further pay cuts for public workers, or to submit tamely to a Right-wing coalition under the thumb of the now-departed EU-IMF 'Troika'.

Against all assumptions, he has suspended his party's historic feud with Portugal's Communists and combined in a triple alliance with the Left Bloc. The trio have demanded the right to govern the country, and together they have an absolute majority in the Portuguese parliament.

The verdict from the markets has been swift. "We would be very reluctant to invest in Portuguese debt," said Rabobank, describing the turn of events as a political shock.

The country's president has the constitutional power to reappoint the old guard - and may in fact do so over coming days - but this would leave the country ungovernable and would be a dangerous demarche in a young Democracy, with memories of the Salazar dictatorship still relatively fresh.

"The majority of the Portuguese people did not vote for the incumbent coalition. They want a change," said Miriam Costa from Lisbon University.

Joseph Daul, head of conservative bloc in the European Parliament, warned that Portugal now faces six months of chaos, and risks going the way of Greece.

Mr Costa's hard-Left allies both favour a return to the escudo. Each concluded that Greece's tortured acrobatics under Alexis Tspiras show beyond doubt that it is impossible to run a sovereign economic policy within the constraints of the single currency.

The Communist leader, Jeronimo de Sousa, has called for a "dissolution of monetary union" for the good of everybody before it does any more damage to the productive base of the European economy.

His party is demanding a 50pc write-off of Portugal's public debt and a 75pc cut in interest payments, and aims to tear up the EU's Lisbon Treaty and the Fiscal Compact. It wants to nationalize the banks, reverse the privatisation of the transport system, energy, and telephones, and take over the "commanding heights of the economy".

Catarina Martins, the Left Bloc's chief, is more nuanced but says that if the Portuguese people have to choose between "dignity and the euro", then dignity should prevail. "Any government that refuses to obey Wolfgang Schauble must be prepared to see the European Central Bank close down its banks," she said.

She is surely right about that. The lesson of the Greek drama is that the ECB is the political enforcer of monetary union, willing to bring rebels to their knees by pulling the plug on a nation's banking system.' [continues]
-------------------

I highlighted the above in blue, as I think it is the core contradiction that underlines the growing chaos. You can't govern as a sovereign state and be within the Euro. You have to accept that Germany will dictate your domestic economic (etc) policy. But no one voted for that, and Germany would have to be delusional to imagine any other EU member will accept it.
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Sat, 24 Oct 2015 11:35 am

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/23/rm-to-le ... ember.html

"(Parity) is totally possible and it may (happen). In fact, one of the things that has kept the euro elevated is that there's been this structural euro short in the market, and whenever you've had an escalation of Fed tightening expectations you've also had an escalation in risk aversion, and they've tended to work in opposite directions on the euro," Yetsenda told CNBC's "Capital Connection" Friday.

"But if the Fed can hike and the ECB's also doing some easing...then that would be a more bearish scenario for the euro and we could potentially see a break from this $1.05 - $1.15 range we've been in for quite a while."

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Mon, 26 Oct 2015 3:23 am

The 'death by a thousand cuts', plate-spinning illusion continues:
[This is just a few lines, the whole article elaborates and obviously stacks up better for it].

---
Eurozone crosses Rubicon as Portugal's anti-euro Left banned from power
Constitutional crisis looms after anti-austerity Left is denied parliamentary prerogative to form a majority government

Portugal has entered dangerous political waters. For the first time since the creation of Europe’s monetary union, a member state has taken the explicit step of forbidding eurosceptic parties from taking office on the grounds of national interest. Anibal Cavaco Silva, Portugal’s constitutional president, has refused to appoint a Left-wing coalition government even though it secured an absolute majority in the Portuguese parliament and won a mandate to smash the austerity regime bequeathed by the EU-IMF Troika.
...
Democracy must take second place to the higher imperative of euro rules and membership.
...
Greece’s Syriza movement, Europe’s first radical-Left government in Europe since the Second World War, was crushed into submission for daring to confront eurozone ideology. Now the Portuguese Left is running into a variant of the same meat-grinder.
Europe’s socialists face a dilemma. They are at last waking up to the unpleasant truth that monetary union is an authoritarian Right-wing enterprise that has slipped its democratic leash, yet if they act on this insight in any way they risk being prevented from taking power.

Brussels really has created a monster.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... power.html
-------------------

A German '4th Reich', and German hegemony across the EU here we come?
It's hard to draw a parallel to an equivalent to this happening within ASEAN. Not least as SG and Brunei are small and yet both rich. But if either were geographically larger (and equally successful still), imagine them going around and wielding that power within a 'union of equals', in an entirely dictatorial and self-interested way, and whipping their poorer and smaller neighbours into submission with a threat of crushing them into oblivion.

Maybe: SG has an election, and the initial result is close, and so neither main party can immediately form a majority. The PAP can't get enough coalition partners to form a working majority and so fail, but the opposition can, and so seek to. In a day or two it seems they can. But, then ASEAN rule that an opposition led coalition would be illegal, which is clearly totally self-interested, and contrary to any interpretation of democracy.

How would the majority who voted for the proposed coalition then feel? Right, entirely disenfranchised by that external trans-national body they've never voted for and yet is ruling over them? Welcome to present-day southern Europe.
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Mon, 26 Oct 2015 3:54 am

p.s. OT the above and something I just came upon...
'Albert Einstein, the eminent scientist, once said “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.” '


Hmmm... I can see enough logic in that to make it plausible coming from a man of that overall stature...
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby earthfriendly » Mon, 26 Oct 2015 10:26 am

Yes, yes, yes, the power of compounding. I have benefited from it for almost two decades and trying to impart that knowledge to my own kids. Almost everyone can benefit from it. The most important thing is to start early. It can be any amount, whatever you can afford, like $50 per month.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Mon, 26 Oct 2015 3:23 pm

^+1. Initially at least it's not the sum that matters, it's about instilling the discipline and habit as early as practical/possible. [And then of course seeking to maintain that discipline until the end-goal is achieved].

And to an extent both elements (absolute sum, and early discipline) feed equally towards the whole. Because if you know you have to save x/Mo, you will fit it into your budget ahead of discretionary spending. Just having the concept of a monthly personal budget, and where your actual spending goes is hugely useful and rewards you in the long term (IME). Many people don't like crunching numbers, and/or are 'too busy' to consider it. Some only do it for the first time under duress when faced say with completing a mortgage affordability analysis.

I wish I had have started some kind of thought out saving routine when I was younger.

Edit/ps: Does understanding why and accepting that it's better to start young instil a form of 'financial mindfulness'? :lol:
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Tue, 27 Oct 2015 8:06 pm

JR8 wrote:The 'death by a thousand cuts', plate-spinning illusion continues.
...
How would the majority who voted for the proposed coalition then feel? [Portuguese voters democratic choice being over-ruled by Berlin]. Right, entirely disenfranchised by that external trans-national body they've never voted for and yet is ruling over them? Welcome to present-day southern Europe.


Following on re: the political mayhem currently going on in Portugal, I found this article (in today's UK Daily Telegraph) a very well written, balanced and concise summation of the situation. From what's happened, why, to the potential macro consequences for the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... acies.html
Why Portugal's constitutional crisis threatens all of Europe's democracies

Just a small extract, the article's conclusion:
[Note: 'Brussels' in Belgium is where the EU parliament is physically located, but that is because it would be completely unacceptable for it to be located in Berlin. But be under no illusion that it is Berlin that wields the EUs power]
---
'Unlike the imposition of technocratic governments in Italy and Greece, Brussels does not have its fingerprints on the weapon in Portugal. The current maelstrom is one manufactured entirely by its own political elites, but one that has profound consequences for democracy in the rest of the eurozone. It has already raised disquiet in neighbouring Spain which faces its own electoral day of reckoning in December. "I don't like what happened in Portugal" said a nervous Mariano Rajoy [PM] of Spain on Monday.

Ironically, many observers note that Mr Costa's [Portuguese] left-wing alliance is nowhere close the bogeyman that has been painted by President Cavaco Silva. But his intransigence may well now unleash exactly the kind of anti-EU forces that are set to keep him awake at night.'

---

Another example of democracy being over-ruled in order to dance to Berlin's orders. And rather than it making things better, it is spreading political contagion across the EU. The next election in Spain is on 20-Dec-15. Every (monthly/+) opinion poll for over the past 3 years has suggested a snap-election would result in a hung parliament - and now this German bullying is only going to further work against the government, and hence of course the interests of the EU.

Berlin's belligerence is staggering, are they really SO blind to the consequences of their actions?... 64 days... tic toc...
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Fri, 30 Oct 2015 10:34 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... k-ubs-says

"London and Hong Kong are the cities most at risk of a housing bubble as real estate begins to look overvalued, according to UBS Group AG."

JR8 and PrimroseHill, something to take note of :)


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