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Some interesting currency moves today

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Wd40
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Re: RE: Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Thu, 16 Jul 2015 5:33 pm

Barnsley wrote:
The Sing Dollar is on the weaken as well .... Wish the Govt would go back to strengthening, but I guess when your exports are heading down the toilet , time to play a few games. :D :D


Yes, I think the general theme is commodity exporters are getting worst hit, next are those that are exporting finished goods like Japan, Korea, China, Singapore. Best performers are internal consumption stories like US, UK and India.
Last edited by Wd40 on Thu, 16 Jul 2015 8:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Thu, 16 Jul 2015 8:05 pm

The might of Europe are proving themselves (daily) a bunch of dunces.
Let's hope SG are far wiser eh.
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Fri, 17 Jul 2015 4:32 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... stock-rout

Chinese are making use of the cheap Aussie and buying properties there.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Sat, 18 Jul 2015 7:43 pm

Good idea: "Germany, Not Greece, Should Exit the Euro"

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... t-the-euro

A German return to the deutsche mark would cause the value of the euro to fall immediately, giving countries in Europe's periphery a much-needed boost in competitiveness. Italy and Portugal have about the same gross domestic product today as when the euro was introduced, and the Greek economy, having briefly soared, is now in danger of falling below its starting point. A weaker euro would give them a chance to jump-start growth. If, as would be likely, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and Finland followed Germany's lead, perhaps to form a new currency bloc, the euro would depreciate even further.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Strong Eagle » Sun, 19 Jul 2015 12:46 am

A very interesting article on the Euro... create by the same man who created "Voodoo Economics", aka, "supply side economics".

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-1 ... aked-start

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Sat, 25 Jul 2015 12:34 pm

AUD and SGD have now hit parity. 1AUD = 1SGD. :) Easy now for expats coming from Australia to Singapore or vice versa.

Its funny how much currencies have moved. NZD was supposed to hit parity with AUD. What has happened is NZD has fallen a further 10% and AUD has fallen to hit parity with SGD.

Now it will be interesting to see what happens to resilient SGD. My feeling is MAS is keeping the SGD strong to prevent SIBOR from rising. SIBOR rises when SGD falls and if SIBOR rises then all those leveraged property holders in Singapore will feel the pain. So in the short term we have the SGD getting support from MAS at the risk of making Singapore less competitive for exports.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Strong Eagle » Sat, 25 Jul 2015 10:06 pm

Wd40 wrote:AUD and SGD have now hit parity. 1AUD = 1SGD. :) Easy now for expats coming from Australia to Singapore or vice versa.

Its funny how much currencies have moved. NZD was supposed to hit parity with AUD. What has happened is NZD has fallen a further 10% and AUD has fallen to hit parity with SGD.

Now it will be interesting to see what happens to resilient SGD. My feeling is MAS is keeping the SGD strong to prevent SIBOR from rising. SIBOR rises when SGD falls and if SIBOR rises then all those leveraged property holders in Singapore will feel the pain. So in the short term we have the SGD getting support from MAS at the risk of making Singapore less competitive for exports.


This has absolutely got to be killing people who financed Oz property with cheap Singapore real estate loans. The down tick of the AUD means folks have to shovel more cash into the note to keep the note to market value at 80 percent. I know a fellow who absolutely got hammered when the AUD tanked in 2008/2009.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... D&view=10Y

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Sat, 25 Jul 2015 11:51 pm

Reminds me of the idea of a 'carry trade' where the forward FX differentials suggest cheap financing and a profit on the outcome. [Same how we see the occasional FX newbie retail investor pop up here, who has rather imprudently been 'sold' the idea on one side of the coin alone, say unusually high interest rates on a cash deposit, without the flip-side of the currency depreciation that almost inherently comes with it].

Like the Treasurer at my last bank/dept, took out a forward yen trade (as a mortgage), paid negative interest rates, then redeemed it a few years later when the yen was c25% lower. Very nice if you have the knowledge to be on the right side of every aspect of the proposition, but, a rare thing to come about, and come together in that you're authorised and financed etc. in order to go ahead with it at the desired point in time.

In the UK you used to be able to take out euro mortgages. They were cheap (%), but some people used them on UK property (i.e. a non-euro country). All wonderful until the total proposition went against them. Now (duh!) such loans can only be used as security on property in the euro-zone; even if sold by an English bank/lender.
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Sun, 26 Jul 2015 12:03 am

This article talks about Australians who made a killing by investing in US properties in 2007-2011 and have now benefited from both rise in USD as well as rise in property prices in the US.

http://www.afr.com/personal-finance/spe ... 722-gigvtb

The Chinese aren't the only ones fuelling Australia's property boom, with expats forming a powerful new wave of buyers as they cash in on opportunistic foreign property gains and bring their money home. Local Australians are benefiting, too, as they seek to repatriate funds invested in distressed US property zones.

A confluence of factors has these investors laughing all the way to the bank – they bought low, are selling high and are now reaping impressive foreign exchange gains in converting their currencies to weak Australian dollars.

The most successful of these, says senior alliance manager at OzForex Jonathan Sermon, bought US property in the wake of the global financial crisis – particularly in places like Atlanta, Florida and Las Vegas where foreclosures were common and house prices were at record lows.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Sun, 26 Jul 2015 12:14 am

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/giving ... 2015-07-24

This is like a gold mine! Fed accidently leaked information about its staff's forecast on interest rates:


According to the projections, the staff of the central bank told officials six weeks ago that they expect the key federal-funds rate to reach 0.35% at the end of the year, signaling that officials will only raise rates once in 2015. Staff members also expected to see rates rise gradually to 1.26% by the end of 2016 and 2.12% by the end of 2017 before hitting 3.34% at the close of 2020.


US interest rates are expected to stay low for a long time.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Sun, 26 Jul 2015 12:19 am

Wd40 wrote:This article talks about Australians who made a killing by investing in US properties in 2007-2011 and have now benefited from both rise in USD as well as rise in property prices in the US.


I think you have to base an investment decision on today's actuals*, rather than tomorrow's possibles.

For example If you can buy a place on a x1k/mo mortgage, and let if after all costs for x2k that sounds (very simplistically) viable. I have never bought into or relied upon promises of what might continue to happen tomorrow. Such promises, or hopes, just aren't secure enough to found a business upon.

Same way when I had to finance a loan at say 9%pa, the very stress-tested *net* income would be far more than (125%+) covered.

For all the people who you hear about who hit 'double cherries' at the top, are ten people who didn't and who decline to be interviewed (about their failure) for glossy magazines lol...

... probably why 'where i went wrong/and what I'd do differently now' articles are far and few between. shame, as those are the stories you can really learn from.


*assuming you've fixed your variables.
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Fri, 07 Aug 2015 7:16 pm

Australia is facing an immigration slowdown as the economy is falling. It now a matter of time that its property market falls. Some resemblance to Singapore's immigration slowdown and property slump.

https://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=t&rct= ... n7gfWhZF5w

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Sat, 08 Aug 2015 12:51 pm

Interesting article about why 401K plans are a scam!

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/financia ... s-altucher

An interesting point in that article which I have been always saying about CPF too and the whole EP vs PR thing.

2) The Employer Match

Do you think companies really pay you free money?

Companies that don't have an employer-match pay higher salaries. The Center for Retirement Research did a study based on tax data and showed that for every dollar an employer (on average) contributes to a 401k match, they pay 99 cents less in salary.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Sat, 08 Aug 2015 2:11 pm

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-a ... -financial

Its 1998 all over again for both Malaysia and Indonesia. Singapore will feel the heat too.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Tue, 11 Aug 2015 12:46 pm

China just devalued the yuan by 2% and that has sent the SGD also tumbling.


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