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Some interesting currency moves today

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Tue, 19 May 2015 2:28 pm

Wd40 wrote:So Asia ex Japan seems to be the biggest dogs in this rally. Shanghai is still 20-30% below it 2007 peak inspite of this massive rally. STI still at 3500 below its 2007 peak of 3700 and same for Hang Seng.


Random-thinking-aloud: SG can't do much. It's economically matured as far as it can. There's no more land, and no prospect of political reinvention.
Much of the rest of ASEAN is so corrupt and incompetent, that it's not going anywhere fast. It's such a lost opportunity... if Malaysia was run by something like the SGn government.... well who knows.
I think Asia got several bubbles.... all the talk was of 'Asian Tigers' and the money flooded in. Bit of a critically endangered species these days...

--- These bubbles tend form in countries that either founded a newly wealthy mass middle-class, that have to find a home for their money, and/or newly liberalised economies where foreigners come late in the day and perceive opportunity. The early-bird gets the worm, the rest are left scratching their head as to why say their Japanese Equity Warrants just went tits-up and are still under water 20 years on...
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Wed, 27 May 2015 2:35 pm

Meanwhile back in the EU.... :roll:

'The charm offensive took an early blow on Monday when it emerged that Mrs Merkel [Germany] and Mr Hollande [France] have agreed a deal to shore up the euro by tightening political union between the Eurozone countries without the need for treaty change.'

Or to try and translate that into say US terms.... 'New York and Connecticut have, between themselves, agreed a deal to create an parallel amending rider to The Constitution, in ways that best suit themselves'...

And you wonder why people see the EU as a Franco-German axis, rather than a democracy.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... fare.html'
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Thu, 28 May 2015 9:18 pm

The dollar is back on the rise! The same script is being played out again. If you remember, the last time the 1st currency to fall was the JPY, followed by EUR, AUD and the rest.

JPY has hit another 12 Year low of 124.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Sat, 30 May 2015 8:06 pm

Both articles from yesterday/Friday.


'Greece's financial saga rumbles on'
http://www.ig.com/uk/market-update/2015 ... s-on-25146

A couple of excerpts from the already brief article (one page).

'European equity markets are rattled as discussions over Greece’s finances rumble on.
Christine Lagarde of the IMF stated a Greek exit of the eurozone is possible, and even though only the Greek people can determine their membership of the single currency Greece has been in revolving door crisis talks for five years now, and Yanis Varoufakis is refusing to bow down to the international creditors.
The ECB secretly doesn’t want to see Greece leave the euro as it could trigger an exodus from the currency union, but at the same time, it must talk tough in order for Athens to stay with its austerity programme.
The fears and anxiety over Greece have never left traders thoughts this week, and this is just the first of three hurdles that the struggling country will have to clear before the summer is out.
The US market is separated from Europe by the Atlantic but the shock waves can be felt in Wall Street, ...'


---- Looks like a long hot summer back in the West - Messy!

The shockwaves are also being felt as far away as here...
'Singapore stocks continue in dismal form
A number of data and events taking place next week would likely inject another round of volatility. The European Central Bank (ECB) ...will have [it's] policy meeting on Tuesday 2 June.

http://www.ig.com/uk/market-update/2015 ... form-25142
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Thu, 11 Jun 2015 11:23 am

An interesting 24hrs.

Last night:
FTSE 100 6,830.27 +1.13% +76.47Points - regaining some of ground it's lost resulting from the ongoing 'Grecian drama'. Retaking 6850 is going to be a significant event, and 6900 would be the foundation of a complete reversal in sentiment (to a bullish one)... if it happens of course.
Overnight:
Dow Jones I.A. 18,000.40 +1.33% +236.36Points - ditto above re: Greece, plus the rising oil price plays into this in the reverse 'bad news is good news' way. Retaking 18k is a big thing, even if hanging on to it by one fingernail.
Now:
Nikkei 225 20,335.16 +1.44% +288.80Points - which is a bit like hanging onto the 20k level by one finger, and then today getting both hands firmly on the bar.
HK is up nearly 1%
SG is -> Straits Times 3,347.53 +0.65% +21.76Points

And the catalyst; 'Germany agrees to meet Greece half-way on reforms as ECB raises ELA ceiling, reports suggest
...While Germany will continue to push for the implementation of an array of measures, such as higher taxes, state asset sales and fewer retirement benefits, it will settle for an immediate agreement to just one for the next installation of aid, two people familiar with Germany's stance cited by Bloomberg said. [conts*]

So Germany are backing off and allowing Greece a way out. Capitulating might be too strong a word :-k It wouldn't surprise me if some other G7 leaders have called Frau Merkel and 'suggested' she pull her finger out, as, as is, SHE is destabilising the world economy.

Where's Aster? :lol: :wink:
c4hrs ahead of the London open, I put my daily '$2 virtual-chip' on the FTSE closing today at 6899.50 :lol: Confident but lacking it's own deep conviction seems to the order of the day these days.

*See more at: http://www.digitallook.com/news/interna ... 57599.html
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Strong Eagle » Thu, 11 Jun 2015 11:58 am

Way back when I stated that Greece would ultimately exit the Euro. This is one step closer to that happening. EU bankers apparently thought Greece would back off the game of chicken and implement the austerity measures that are killing the country.

But, Greece has not backed off... and for good reason... what the EU bankers want cripples Greece for decades... it's bloody WWI reparations all over again... and while a default and return to the Drachma will hurt Greece in the short run, it's ultimately far less painful than the conditions the EU is trying to foist on Greece right now.

Someone has to take a haircut... I vote for the greedy bankers.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Thu, 11 Jun 2015 1:22 pm

Lol... pretty much agree, but predictably I don’t go with the ‘greedy banker’ line :wink:

I wonder if Greece genuinely planned to, or would ever leave the Euro. The consequences would be so cataclysmic it would be the biggest of pyrrhic victories (‘cutting off your nose to spite your face’). My feel, and it’s only that, is the spectre was raised simply as a very hard-ball negotiating position. And since no one is ever allowed to leave the ‘Hotel Euro-fornia’ it’s a potent position, but crudely misjudged and so crudely hard-ball it created almost an irrecoverable negotiating position and hence it very nearly failed. Just think about how you negotiate a contract, would you begin by literally nailing the other party to the floor? :roll:

I’m quite sure Franco-German banks have put pressure on Merkel and the EU, after all they have a looot of money invested in Greece. You could say they’ve been sold the line that the Euro is like an unsinkable battleship. Greece leaving would be like getting a torpedo through the Euro’s hull, the myth would be shattered once and for all, it would be devastating.
[x-ref: The ‘unsinkable’ German WW2 battleship Bismarck having it’s rudder taken out by a torpedo leaving it going in circles before it was finally sunk http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_battl ... p_Bismarck ]

Added to that I reckon Franco-German banks put a lot of pressure on Merkel to ensure Greece stays in the Euro. For banks/pension funds etc Greece has been a one-way bet, it trades at or near junk-bond territory with parallel juicy returns, but is perceived to be almost risk-free because it’s economic survival and membership of the Euro is cast-iron and ultimately underwritten by northern Europe.

Germany have been over-blunt too. They have mistaken ‘obeying orders’ with being so over-zealous that severely wounding Greek national pride has resulted. That has made a difficult regional situation a globally impacting crisis. I don’t think any of the EU leaders have an education or background in economics and it shows.

It’s not just the ‘greedy bankers’ that would take a haircut if Greece leaves the Euro, it’s your CPF, or your US-IRA, etc/etc. The performance of the latter translates into political votes, my 2c is that that is what politicians are taking notice of.


--- an analogy I've made before... imagine the USA with no mechanism for aiding weaker States, no mechanism for Federal level transfers, the (arguably) poorer central states might be at risk of crumbling. That's what you have in the EU, and the reason is the EU super-structure is being progressively forced on the citizenry in steps, and there's no way the German citizenry are ready yet accept their hard-won Euros being sent off to support the 'feckless southern Europeans'. That is the Euro's Achilles heel, today it's Greece, tomorrow, Italy, Spain, Portugal? Meanwhile in this exercise in empire-building Turkey and even Morocco (in Africa FFS!) wait in the wings at the beauty parade desperately applying their lipstick and blusher. It would be completely hilarious if the consequences for all of us weren't so dark.
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Strong Eagle » Thu, 11 Jun 2015 10:13 pm

JR8 wrote:--- an analogy I've made before... imagine the USA with no mechanism for aiding weaker States, no mechanism for Federal level transfers, the (arguably) poorer central states might be at risk of crumbling. That's what you have in the EU, and the reason is the EU super-structure is being progressively forced on the citizenry in steps, and there's no way the German citizenry are ready yet accept their hard-won Euros being sent off to support the 'feckless southern Europeans'. That is the Euro's Achilles heel, today it's Greece, tomorrow, Italy, Spain, Portugal? Meanwhile in this exercise in empire-building Turkey and even Morocco (in Africa FFS!) wait in the wings at the beauty parade desperately applying their lipstick and blusher. It would be completely hilarious if the consequences for all of us weren't so dark.


^^^^^^
This!!!

One of Paul Krugman's central issues with the idea of the Euro as a single currency.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Wed, 17 Jun 2015 12:28 pm

In morning news:
--------
'What’s spiking my interest:
The European bond VIX index had a gleeful night as Greece threw haymakers[*] at whoever it could. ‘Criminal responsibility’ for the austerity has been imposed. PM Tsipras is not mincing his words about the IMF, the ECB and the European commission.
It’s clear to all and sundry that no deal will be done tomorrow night. However, those comments saw European bonds having the most volatile trading night of 2015 and peripheral bonds were even more savaged.
There is one fact that marks the bond markets more strongly than any other: If bond investors get a whiff of default or contagion or sovereign risk, that nation’s bonds will be mauled and yields with be at eye watering levels in a matter of minutes.'
[conts]

http://www.ig.com/uk/market-update/2015 ... alue-25500
--------
Contagion here we come... #-o Who's next? Italy, Spain... ?


*If that doesn't translate. A 'haymaker' is a reference to a specific punch by a boxer, always opportunistic, often against a tired opponent, a powerful and wide 'reaping' blow that swings around and in from the side to the opponents head, that if it lands as planned can often result in a complete knock-out and the end of the bout.
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Fri, 19 Jun 2015 9:35 pm

It's been a while since I looked at currencies. NZD has been beaten out of shape. GBP has gone up quite a bit.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Wed, 24 Jun 2015 11:29 am

An interesting summarisation from the eminent historian, writer, and journalist Max Hastings*.

---------------
'We like to believe that the nations of Europe are governed by sensible people. Yet the Greek fiasco, imbroglio, shipwreck — choose your own word — suggests otherwise, as does a good deal of history.

Indeed, back in 1910, the bright and cynical general commanding the British Army’s staff college told his students that he regarded a continental war as inevitable.

One officer leapt to his feet and said that only ‘inconceivable stupidity on the part of statesmen’ could bring about such a catastrophe.

The general responded derisively: ‘Inconceivable stupidity is just what you are going to get.’ And so, of course, they did, in 1914.

This time, fortunately, the stakes are mere euros and drachmas rather than torrents of blood.

But it has been impossible to watch the march of the euro since its introduction in 1999 without awed disbelief that so many politicians and bankers with more degrees and diplomas than any Mastermind winner could have made such colossal misjudgments, which have continued this week at the Eurogroup emergency summit in Brussels.

It was ridiculous to create a common currency in the absence of a common system of government. It was madness to join together a clutch of northern nations that pay taxes, respect agreements and are reasonably uncorrupt with such countries as Italy, Spain and, above all, Greece, where honest men inspire derision.'
[continues]
---------------
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/artic ... worse.html

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Hastings
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Thu, 25 Jun 2015 5:03 pm

From today's UK Daily Telegraph newspaper:

'QUOTE OF THE DAY
"We need to reach a good agreement for the Greek economy and for the future of the monetary union".
Jan Van Overtveldt, Belgian finance minister, comments on Greek debt talks at the Eurogroup meeting yesterday. '

--------------
I find it surprising that an EU politician comes out and states that the future of the EU/Euro is dependent on the tiny little Greece. Is the EU really *THAT* vulnerable? Wow... sounds like it's doomed to me!
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Mon, 29 Jun 2015 12:48 pm

Blood on the street today, as Greece looks all set to default. I hope this turns out to be good opportunity to buy.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Addadude » Mon, 29 Jun 2015 1:57 pm

Wd40 wrote:Blood on the street today, as Greece looks all set to default. I hope this turns out to be good opportunity to buy.


I'm gunning for a small Greek island myself. O:)
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Mon, 29 Jun 2015 8:28 pm

China is now going down at the same rate at which it went up:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/asian-share ... 1435540973


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