Lol... pretty much agree, but predictably I don’t go with the ‘greedy banker’ line
I wonder if Greece genuinely planned to, or would ever leave the Euro. The consequences would be so cataclysmic it would be the biggest of pyrrhic victories (‘cutting off your nose to spite your face’). My feel, and it’s only that, is the spectre was raised simply as a very hard-ball negotiating position. And since no one is ever allowed to leave the ‘Hotel Euro-fornia’ it’s a potent position, but crudely misjudged and so crudely hard-ball it created almost an irrecoverable negotiating position and hence it very nearly failed. Just think about how you negotiate a contract, would you begin by literally nailing the other party to the floor?
I’m quite sure Franco-German banks have put pressure on Merkel and the EU, after all they have a looot of money invested in Greece. You could say they’ve been sold the line that the Euro is like an unsinkable battleship. Greece leaving would be like getting a torpedo through the Euro’s hull, the myth would be shattered once and for all, it would be devastating.
[x-ref: The ‘unsinkable’ German WW2 battleship Bismarck having it’s rudder taken out by a torpedo leaving it going in circles before it was finally sunk http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_battl ... p_Bismarck
Added to that I reckon Franco-German banks put a lot of pressure on Merkel to ensure Greece stays in the Euro. For banks/pension funds etc Greece has been a one-way bet, it trades at or near junk-bond territory with parallel juicy returns, but is perceived to be almost risk-free because it’s economic survival and membership of the Euro is cast-iron and ultimately underwritten by northern Europe.
Germany have been over-blunt too. They have mistaken ‘obeying orders’ with being so over-zealous that severely wounding Greek national pride has resulted. That has made a difficult regional situation a globally impacting crisis. I don’t think any of the EU leaders have an education or background in economics and it shows.
It’s not just the ‘greedy bankers’ that would take a haircut if Greece leaves the Euro, it’s your CPF, or your US-IRA, etc/etc. The performance of the latter translates into political votes, my 2c is that that is what politicians are taking notice of.
--- an analogy I've made before... imagine the USA with no mechanism for aiding weaker States, no mechanism for Federal level transfers, the (arguably) poorer central states might be at risk of crumbling. That's what you have in the EU, and the reason is the EU super-structure is being progressively forced on the citizenry in steps, and there's no way the German citizenry are ready yet accept their hard-won Euros being sent off to support the 'feckless southern Europeans'. That is the Euro's Achilles heel, today it's Greece, tomorrow, Italy, Spain, Portugal? Meanwhile in this exercise in empire-building Turkey and even Morocco (in Africa FFS!) wait in the wings at the beauty parade desperately applying their lipstick and blusher. It would be completely hilarious if the consequences for all of us weren't so dark.