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Some interesting currency moves today

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Wd40
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Thu, 19 Feb 2015 12:33 am

Finally your FTSE is moving towards 7k mark and cross the all time high last reached in 1999 :)

Meanwhile I just had a look at fundsupermarts top performing global funds.

https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/f ... Funds.svdo

At the bottom right corner, best performing 10 years annualized:
First State Regional India Fund 16.84%

Mind you these returns are in SGD and the fund is unhedged and SGD has doubled against INR in the last years, inspite of that 16.84% returns, impressive isn't it? :)

Also in that list, Thailand and Indonesia, both clocking over 12% returns.

Reason, why I continue to remit money to India and invest there :)

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Thu, 19 Feb 2015 3:12 pm

It's a tricky old week [polite version!], that's for sure. The UK market is clearly unconvinced that 'it's ok' to break out of it's current range of say 6800-6900 (or the wider one 6740-6930). It opened yesterday and looked full of confidence, rose through a key resistance level of 6900, and it then looked like it might test 6930: A *BIG* level, in fact it was the Dec-99 high... 'til the dot.com bust imploded... so very significant.

Then it slowly gave it all up and more, ticking slowly all the way down through the day, before finally picking up at the end (after I'd given in for the day and gone to bed), closing with 0.00% change, at 6898, two points under the key 6900 level. Reeeeaaaally - sigh! :roll:

Anyway another day dawns, and the market opens in an hour, so it's back to work for me (whilst the wife goes out CNY visiting).

While I remember, if it's of any interest to anyone here is my go-to site for daily technical analysis(TA)/charting. This one covers the FTSE, DAX (Germany) and Dow. http://www.ig.com/uk/indices-news It might have other indices on other pages... probably has, but I don't follow them so am not sure. It's a good site, the reviews are very concise and clear.

I recently came across another site with similar TA analyses, but right there on one page it covers many main markets from the US, to Europe, through Mumbai, Japan to Aus. It also covers FX pairs, gold, silver and oil... and others. http://www.fxempire.com/technical/techn ... s-reports/

I'll have a look at your link in a moment. As you know I'm inherently 'anti-fund' :) but none the less will be interested to see what the figures look like, and how the returns translate into various harder currencies.

Have a good day on the markets! London is opening in an hour, and waiting for a cue to stop bloody well dithering about, but I suspect it isn't going to happen this week whilst Grecian woes loom large and centre-stage .... but every day begins with hope eh? :)

Edit to add: Wow, those are some returns! And it's not a once off, it goes back over a quite comfortingly long period. Usual cautions apply, beware of something almost too good to be true. And don't put all your eggs in one basket; *note it's risk rating of 9!* I appreciate that that's even harder to do when you're 'coining it' (i.e. making a fat return), but many wise people got burnt to a crisp in the dot.com bust.

Beers on you! :cool: :lol:
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Thu, 19 Feb 2015 8:55 pm

JR8 wrote:London is opening in an hour, and waiting for a cue to stop bloody well dithering about, but I suspect it isn't going to happen this week whilst Grecian woes loom large and centre-stage ....


---
'ECB risks crippling political damage if Greece forced to default
If Greece defaulted, the German people would discover instantly that a large sum of money committed without their knowledge and without a vote in the Bundestag had vanished.
-- The political detonating pin for Greek contagion in Europe is an obscure mechanism used by the eurozone's nexus of central banks to settle accounts.


If Greece is forced out of the euro in acrimonious circumstances - a 50/50 risk given the continued refusal of the creditor core to acknowledge their own guilt and strategic errors - the country will not only default on its EMU rescue packages, but also on its "Target2" liabilities to the European Central Bank.'

---
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... fault.html

Oops I made the same mistake again. The woes are German, and NOT Grecian, the latter are just the convenient side-show.
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Thu, 19 Feb 2015 10:53 pm

Oil prices have resumed their downward journey. It is hurting Dow at the moment, but good news for India :D

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Strong Eagle » Fri, 20 Feb 2015 3:40 am

An interesting comparison by Paul Krugman.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/16/opini ... egion&_r=1

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Fri, 20 Feb 2015 1:08 pm

I genuinely LOL'd at the er, intentionally blunt headline - 'Weimar on the Aegean' :lol: :lol:

But by god he hits the nail on the head. Pity the Greeks, that the Germans seem to have learned nothing from their past expansionist disasters. Now each day I'm reading headlines like 'Germany refuse Greece's request for X', 'Germany refuse to consider Y'... etc. The irony is that the EU was born specifically to keep the Germans in check, and yet here we are 60 years later, and apparently, they've appointed themselves to run the whole f'ing show.

It's like Texas (being somewhat as economically comparable, US states vs EU states), unilaterally directly intervening at a quasi-Federal level, in the political affairs of South Dakota.

Edit to add minor update from this mornings news [as is morning in Europe]:
'The Eurogroup is set to meet in Brussels at 14:00 to discuss Greece’s proposal for a loan extension, albeit on different terms on the existing bailout. Germany has already rejected the request, saying it was “not a substantial solution”.'
http://www.digitallook.com/news/market- ... 53713.html

Isn't it great :o Germany has no direct jurisdiction in this matter, and yet there they go again, butting in, assuming control, and undermining and pre-empting the sole official body that has jurisdiction in this matter. I cannot tell you politely how angry this makes me. Their maniacal behaviour, is only forcing 'the union' further apart!
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Fri, 20 Feb 2015 10:43 pm

Image

I've just discovered that ig.com offer access to free 'live' [5 mins delayed] technical analysis, intra-day too.

Brilliant, now I can chew my nails all day long at every micro-tick and flicker :lol:

Seriously though it adds a 2nd and 3rd dimension to a 1D intra-day simple line graph. Showing what could be referred to as both momentum and conviction. Note in the bottom half of the screen how when the two 'indicator' lines cross, it signals the next near-term direction. Blue piercing red from underneath is +ve, and vice versa.

IG cover many markets, certainly all of Europe. Their news/commentary is global. If the above is of interest/use to anyone, have a dig around you might be able to find coverage for other markets too. To get charts like this for free is pretty damned cool... I'd never have imagined.... even my very tooled-up broker www doesn't offer anything like this.

^Above:
Market doing bugger all from the open to 10am (GMT) this morning. Then POW! the mother of all buying hits in a 5-minute window at 10.10-10.15am.
This perks things up, but then progressively ebbs, before sentiment turns negative with red piercing blue from below, c11.45.
Market is disillusioned... ... < Greece > ... <bloody Germans > ... etc.... and so on, drifting.
Finally about 15 minutes ago, it’s becoming more positive, blue pierced red from below, and ... ... ? 'The beat goes on' in the words of the eponymous song ... :lol:
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Strong Eagle » Wed, 25 Feb 2015 10:43 pm

Janet Yellen announced yesterday that there would be no rise in the Fed funds rate for the foreseeable future... surprise, surprise...NOT!

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Wed, 25 Feb 2015 11:37 pm

Thank heavens for her.... she's the foil versus Merkel who seems to be perpetually at the point of declaring EU-wide ruin at the hands of tiny little Greece. Pathetic, and very damaging. Strait-jacket economic ideology vs real-world circumstance. Foibles and reality look like the Achilles Heel of the whole Godforsaken EU 'project'.

---
'Germany's 10-Year Bund yield is currently at 0.36% after Berlin on Wednesday auctioned €3.28b in five-year notes, attracting a negative yield, of -0.08%, for the first time ever. That said, the bid-to-cover ratio jumped to 2 from 1.1, indicating strong demand.'
---
http://www.digitallook.com/news/bonds/c ... 55351.html

Hahaha.... Europe is such a 'great success', that banks are flocking to pay to park money via it's apparently strongest member. Well done Germany, whipping Greece means you get lots of free money. .... Enjoy your [ECB] riches; the 4th Reich marches smugly on! :x



---- Parking money on -Ve returns is what Japan was doing in the early 90s, which was followed by about 20 years of 'virtual depression'.
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Thu, 26 Feb 2015 11:15 pm

Consumer prices post their biggest drop since 2008



http://a.msn.com/r/2/BBhZxt2?a=0&m=en-us

Forget rate hikes.

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Fri, 27 Feb 2015 12:09 am

I'm fully loaded tonight....
'Come on FTSE, come on.... close above 6950..... you know you want to.' [-o<
---- at x48.5, and all the trends are up, 15 minutes to go....


Edit: 5 mins to go.... nope, just hasn't the confidence to do it. Ah well. live another day.....
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Fri, 27 Feb 2015 1:10 pm

Meanwhile...

'Germany is expected to approve the new eurozone bail-out deal for Greece in a parliamentary vote on Friday but has warned that Athens will receive nothing unless it honours its commitments under the deal.

Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German finance minister, said he was “stunned” after his Greek counterpart, Yanis Varoufakis, spoke again of a debt restructuring on Greek radio, and the Athens government indicated it would block plans to privatise strategic assets.

“If the Greeks violate the agreements, then they have become obsolete," a visibly angry Mr Schaeuble said at a meeting to persuade German MPs to support the deal in today’s vote. The meeting in Berlin came after Germany’s biggest-selling newspaper launched a campaign against the Greece deal, printing “NEIN!” across an entire inside page, and encouraging readers to take selfies holding the page up and send them in for publication.

“No more billions for greedy Greeks,” the newspaper added, in only slightly smaller print. The page was printed in the blue and white of the Greek flag, instead of Bild’s more usual red and white.'
[continues]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... reece.html

Ah, a master-class demonstration of EU unity... #-o
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Wd40 » Sun, 01 Mar 2015 9:11 pm

China cut rates on saturday. Shanghai is going to rocket on Monday:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-pboc- ... 1425121038

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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby JR8 » Sun, 01 Mar 2015 10:22 pm

Non-paywall article, re: Chinese interest rates ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... e-cut-move

Could be interesting how the market responds tomorrow. Two cuts in 3 months suggests they mean action.

p.s. And another, that concludes... 'To really juice credit creation, in particular the kind that trickles down to the more economically dynamic private sector, most economists believe the bank will have to do many more cuts to both rates and RRR [bank capital reserve requirements].'
So, more to come?
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/china ... 30612.html
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Re: Some interesting currency moves today

Postby Primrose Hill » Mon, 02 Mar 2015 10:26 am

rock and roll times ahead or turbulent times?


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