Thanks for that link. A useful encapsulation of how this situation has come about.
The euro, an ideological project, has no reverse gear. It's like 'Hotel Currencyfornia' [
], you can enter, and 'you can check-out any time you want, but you can never leave'. Greece will be kept in the euro at all costs (born by itself, of course), or it will be destroyed by the North European core states. The blunt message for others to note, will be that there is no alternative to be found by leaving the euro.
So where next? The rest of the 'PIIGS'. I hear little discontent from Ireland, so that leaves Portugal, Italy and Spain. The latter two are major economies. Spain is the 4th largest economy within the EU. Spain has elections this year.
“The Spanish version of Syriza – Podemos - is currently polling in second place ahead of the elections due by December this year. If an anti-austerity party was to take power in the Eurozone’s fourth largest economy, then the risk of a full-blown political crisis could seriously impact European markets.”
http://www.digitallook.com/news/market- ... 45145.html
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
So my non-euro wager, is going to be staked on the heat turning up on Spain next. If Spain starts threatening to 'do a Greece', or perhaps has something like a 'Summer of discontent' (strikes/rallies/demos. etc) it's going to be a volatile year for the EU. Since most of the employed population is on holiday for 2.5-3 months over the summer, there will be a huge amount of people sitting around considering affairs and what might be done. How the northern core seek to pre-empt that (if at all!) could be interesting. Events in Greece have shown that the EU is completely reactive rather than proactive, and even then
very reluctantly, and ineffectually. So.... time to stock up on popcorn and beer, and sit back and watch the show unfold. It's like a feel-good war film, with the merciless and bullying Germans and their collaborating French poodles getting a seriously hard kicking*.
--- It comes to mind that the euro-zone is not only a political union, a trading union, a currency union, it was designed as a debt union as well. Of course, otherwise the inherent internal economic tensions would make it non-viable I.e. the wealthier states should expect to help support the poorer ones, that is what they signed up to. But debt-pooling has never happened, each state still issues it's own national euro-denominated debt. And in place of this debt-pooling, there seem to be ill-thought out 'rescues' that only serve to nudge the recipients towards final implosion. The blame rests squarely on the deluded architects of this scheme.
*[For the avoidance of any doubt, the German and French politicians, NOT the citizenry].