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Barnsley
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Postby Barnsley » Fri, 12 Sep 2014 10:09 am

Beeroclock wrote:http://www.todayonline.com/business/sharper-focus-interest-rates-needed-property-market-projections

"Another month passes and another property market forecast is made — but nothing really new is said. If you want to be cynical about it, the prediction of the market’s demise in the near future is old hat. Analysts have been queueing up to repeat this mantra with increasing frequency since a couple of years ago, some even as early as when stamp duties were introduced in an attempt to cool the market.

While the analysts have backed their forecasts with arguments and data about the oversupply, the tepid growth, the new productivity-driven economic model and tighter population policy, there is very little discussion on interest rates and how they may trend in the near future....."


Do you forsee interest rates going up in US/Europe anytime soon?

The EU just cut theirs last week , although there isnt much left to cut.
Life is short, paddle harder!!

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Postby stuckmojo » Fri, 12 Sep 2014 10:49 am

Barnsley wrote:
Beeroclock wrote:http://www.todayonline.com/business/sharper-focus-interest-rates-needed-property-market-projections

"Another month passes and another property market forecast is made — but nothing really new is said. If you want to be cynical about it, the prediction of the market’s demise in the near future is old hat. Analysts have been queueing up to repeat this mantra with increasing frequency since a couple of years ago, some even as early as when stamp duties were introduced in an attempt to cool the market.

While the analysts have backed their forecasts with arguments and data about the oversupply, the tepid growth, the new productivity-driven economic model and tighter population policy, there is very little discussion on interest rates and how they may trend in the near future....."


Do you forsee interest rates going up in US/Europe anytime soon?

The EU just cut theirs last week , although there isnt much left to cut.


No chance, the aggregate amount of private and public debt cannot possibly sustain any increase. If anything, we're getting close to having negative interest rates to keep the bubble afloat.

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Postby curiousgeorge » Fri, 12 Sep 2014 11:06 am

stuckmojo wrote:
Do you forsee interest rates going up in US/Europe anytime soon?

The EU just cut theirs last week , although there isnt much left to cut.


No chance, the aggregate amount of private and public debt cannot possibly sustain any increase. If anything, we're getting close to having negative interest rates to keep the bubble afloat.[/quote]

Has that ever happened? What are the practical implications for the man on the street? My savings shrink in size but so does my mortgage?

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 12 Sep 2014 11:18 am

curiousgeorge wrote:Has that ever happened? What are the practical implications for the man on the street? My savings shrink in size but so does my mortgage?


Japan had negative interest rates in the early 90s. I.e you were penalised for depositing rather than spending money. The latter being believed to be the spark needed to get the economy growing. I.e. 'spending your way out of recession'.

see further, esp re: EU/ECB: -
http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ntral-bank

And from EU Propaganda-central... [who are located on 'Kaiserstrasse', OMG irony overload :)))].
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/faqi ... es.en.html

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Postby Beeroclock » Fri, 12 Sep 2014 4:54 pm

JR8 wrote:Japan had negative interest rates in the early 90s. I.e you were penalised for depositing rather than spending money. The latter being believed to be the spark needed to get the economy growing. I.e. 'spending your way out of recession'.


http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/10/uk-japan-economy-boj-rates-idUKKBN0H51FC20140910

BOJ buying 3 month bills at a negative yield just the other day.... Paying people money to take their money ?!?

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Postby Beeroclock » Fri, 12 Sep 2014 5:00 pm

Barnsley wrote:Do you forsee interest rates going up in US/Europe anytime soon?

The EU just cut theirs last week , although there isnt much left to cut.


US/UK/Australia etc: Yes it's within sight next year, but will be gently I expect. I think NZ already started, leading the way as always, must be the kiwi timezone

Japan/EU: No time soon. Already both having negative interest rates as per previous posts and still their economies struggling to grow..... EU is painfully slow to watch their gradual snail-like movement towards QE !!! The US will finish before ECB gets the idea to start. Fantastic for all the Investment Banks, Hedge Funds etc, who are merrily front running the ECB, buying up all the EU bonds and securities now (and pushing the yields down as you said), knowing they will have a huge, price-insensitive buyer who will come in eventually to let them offload and realized their big fat profits. :roll:

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Postby Wd40 » Fri, 12 Sep 2014 5:25 pm

Swiss Frank interbank rates are negative
http://www.global-rates.com/interest-ra ... franc.aspx

But that is because it is Swiss Franc, gold standard, safe haven.

I think US are EU are in different rate cycles. US will definitely start increasing rates. EU has just started its QE.

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Postby JR8 » Fri, 12 Sep 2014 5:55 pm

Beeroclock wrote:
Barnsley wrote:Do you forsee interest rates going up in US/Europe anytime soon?

The EU just cut theirs last week , although there isnt much left to cut.


US/UK/Australia etc: Yes it's within sight next year, but will be gently I expect. I think NZ already started, leading the way as always, must be the kiwi timezone

Japan/EU: No time soon. Already both having negative interest rates as per previous posts and still their economies struggling to grow..... EU is painfully slow to watch their gradual snail-like movement towards QE !!! The US will finish before ECB gets the idea to start. Fantastic for all the Investment Banks, Hedge Funds etc, who are merrily front running the ECB, buying up all the EU bonds and securities now (and pushing the yields down as you said), knowing they will have a huge, price-insensitive buyer who will come in eventually to let them offload and realized their big fat profits. :roll:


The Germans are so paranoid about 1930s style inflation in Europe, that before they risk that happening domestically they'd rather see the peripheral countries burn (Greece etc).

The front-running of the Japanese central bank was how I got my first role in Asia. Helping to set up a JGB repo unit. We were simply printing money. Strange times indeed.


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