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The causes of the current EU migrant crisis.

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Re: RE: Re: The causes of the current EU migrant crisis.

Postby ecureilx » Sat, 09 Jan 2016 9:45 pm

x9200 wrote:
JR8 wrote:Presumably they have yet to make the journey? Look at photos of the seemingly almost endless lines trekking across Europe and it's predominantly males. There might be a parallel in the early (post-war) Sub-Con immigration to the UK. Usually the men went first, and once they got themselves established women and any children could follow.

Haven't they supposed to be refugees fleeing out of their countries for the safety reasons? How is it than their women were left behind?

On a related note and after what happened in NY eve in Germany and many other EU countries, I hope there will be some awakening before the Europe is completely brain dead from this self-destructive political correctness.


Didn't some leader ask why the able bodied men who are supposed to be fighting, fleeing, leaving behind the women and children ?

As for the NY event, since I read Daily Wail I was thinking it's all exaggerated, including the crowd supposedly screaming that they were invited by Mrs Merkel.

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Re: The causes of the current EU migrant crisis.

Postby x9200 » Sat, 09 Jan 2016 10:02 pm

I believe it was not exaggerated but what is equally worse is self-censorship of the German main-stream media and idiots like the Cologne mayor (a woman!) advising women in a manner suggesting their were at fault too.

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Re: RE: Re: The causes of the current EU migrant crisis.

Postby ecureilx » Sun, 10 Jan 2016 12:08 am

x9200 wrote:I believe it was not exaggerated but what is equally worse is self-censorship of the German main-stream media and idiots like the Cologne mayor (a woman!) advising women in a manner suggesting their were at fault too.

I don't think its the right word to say but ... looks like they are fxxxxxxd up big time.

I did see the part that said the German law allows deportation of anybody who has served 12 months or longer in prison.

There's no such thing as undesirable immigrant - for lesser crimes :(

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Re: The causes of the current EU migrant crisis.

Postby JR8 » Sun, 10 Jan 2016 3:23 am

x9200 wrote:Haven't they supposed to be refugees fleeing out of their countries for the safety reasons?


'Supposed to be', yes, but it seems a material number of them are economic migrants. If you're fleeing for reasons of safety, why wouldn't you have found sanctuary at the first safe point of arrival... Greece, Turkey, southern Europe? After all that is what the asylum laws also require. And yet many of them are trekking on thousands of miles, enduring risk and deprivation to get to wealthier northern Europe and Scandinavia. What do you conclude from that, trekking through far simpler options that share elements of their culture, cuisine, climate etc., to get to alien ones (that happen to be far wealthier).

x9200 wrote:How is it than their women were left behind?

You will see the Time/quote 'A]' below reaches the same conclusion as I did. Particularly the sentence I have bolded.


A]------
Time.com, Who I think it’s fair to say are probably ‘mainstream Liberal’

[1]‘In Europe, over 800,000 migrants have traveled to Europe by sea in 2015, according to the United Nations refugee agency, and a little over half have come from Syria. About 62% of all migrants that have traveled to Europe this year, however, are men. A little under a quarter, 22%, are children and only 16% are women.’
Trump isn’t exactly wrong—many of the refugees seeking asylum in Europe are indeed young men. But as the TIME’s Karl Vick wrote in September, many of the men are fleeing the same enemy nations across the world find themselves up against.
“Placed one atop the other on a map, the number of people moving to join Syria’s civil war would appear as a barely visible black thread in the wide, wide arrow pointing out from the country: 20,000 people going in against 4-million headed out. And while most of the foreign fighters are young men, the same is true of those fleeing the fighting. Many doubtless are escaping conscription into the Syrian armed forces, which President Bashar Assad in a July speech admitted faces major manpower shortages. Almost all are a vanguard for families waiting to follow them. You don’t send a mother or a grandfather to scout a route to a new home. You send the hardiest and least vulnerable—males in their late teens to middle age.”
[JR: My bold]

and

2. 'The United Nations has registered over 4.2 million Syrian refugees, a step in seeking asylum from other countries, and has a demographic snapshot of about half of them. Of the 2.1 million registered in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon there’s a pretty even split in gender: about 50.5% are women and 49.7% are men.'
http://time.com/4122186/syrian-refugees ... young-men/
-----

Curious that these people are fleeing for 'safety'. I've been to Egypt on holiday many times, as have several of my relatives. I'd go again, in fact I was discussing that in passing with my wife just last week (she was also posted there for several years). So, their citizens are allegedly fleeing for safety, while we're chatting about going there for a holiday - seems a contradiction.
And we have also recently been on holiday to Lebanon, and we found it to be quite wonderful, disarmingly friendly, welcoming, and wouldn't hesitate to return. Unsafe? I didn't feel that even once, and my risk-radar is well attuned.
Jordan, I would visit without hesitation, I genuinely hope to, it's just one of those places I haven't got around to yet. Safety - it's probably safer than most big German cities right now.
But Iraq - yes that's 'too hot' for me now that I'm getting older and less intrepid. But I know it is still open for tourism and have read (1-2 years ago) the details of tours visiting there - just my wife said if I went, I'd be going alone lol.

Back to the above Time quote:
The above statistical breakdown appears to remove consideration of gender from the category of Children. But it’s not clear how they define the latter age-wise. But you can extrapolate the total for Adults as 62+16%=88%, hence Males 62/88%=70.45%.



B)------
Eurostat – Quarterly Asylum Report – Dec 2015
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics ... rly_report
Drill-down to a table such as this, EU-wide by gender, also suggests 70% male [2014].So perhaps concluding that the gender split is about 70/30 might be about right...
You can also see the split by country in this above data, and I expect age as well [for some reason the table does not function too well in my browser, so pulling up more results is a challenge]. It would be interesting to see splits of say distance travelled, and then further split that by gender.

x9200 wrote:On a related note and after what happened in NY eve in Germany and many other EU countries, I hope there will be some awakening before the Europe is completely brain dead from this self-destructive political correctness.


Blair notoriously opened the flood-gates to non-EU immigration into the UK as he knew whom ever he facilitated citizenship to would then have a long-term 'debt/vote of gratitude' for his party, Labour; and specifically the logic was so large was immigration that Labour could thus not be voted out of power for a generation+. He would rule Labour and the country as some kind of God until the day a generation later he chose to retire. And I think Merkel is mirroring very close to this plan in Germany. Her coalition is a fragile one and in the balance, 100's of k's of new grateful voters will keep her and her party in power for ever the logic goes.... but she wasn't counting on this back-lash it seems; probably why she ordered a news black-out on it: Inconvenient News?

But lastly, as I perhaps said, when I have walked through such crowds of young men who seem to congregate outside German mainline/city railway station, including Munich, Dusseldorf, Cologne they have been apparently wholly male, and aged say 16-40. There is a lot of public drinking, and Middle-Eastern men drinking in public doesn't bode well does it? Plus lots of 'deals being done' [the used wraps on crack, and strips of foil are on the ground and plain to see]. It is an unnerving experience, especially at night, even as a 'pretty big white guy'.
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Re: The causes of the current EU migrant crisis.

Postby rajagainstthemachine » Sun, 10 Jan 2016 6:06 pm

To get there early is on time and showing up on time is late

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Re: The causes of the current EU migrant crisis.

Postby x9200 » Mon, 11 Jan 2016 9:37 am

JR8 wrote:
x9200 wrote:Haven't they supposed to be refugees fleeing out of their countries for the safety reasons?


'Supposed to be', yes, but it seems a material number of them are economic migrants. If you're fleeing for reasons of safety, why wouldn't you have found sanctuary at the first safe point of arrival... Greece, Turkey, southern Europe? After all that is what the asylum laws also require. And yet many of them are trekking on thousands of miles, enduring risk and deprivation to get to wealthier northern Europe and Scandinavia. What do you conclude from that, trekking through far simpler options that share elements of their culture, cuisine, climate etc., to get to alien ones (that happen to be far wealthier).


Precisely.

JR8 wrote:
x9200 wrote:How is it than their women were left behind?

You will see the Time/quote 'A]' below reaches the same conclusion as I did. Particularly the sentence I have bolded.


A]------
Time.com, Who I think it’s fair to say are probably ‘mainstream Liberal’

[1]‘In Europe, over 800,000 migrants have traveled to Europe by sea in 2015, according to the United Nations refugee agency, and a little over half have come from Syria. About 62% of all migrants that have traveled to Europe this year, however, are men. A little under a quarter, 22%, are children and only 16% are women.’
Trump isn’t exactly wrong—many of the refugees seeking asylum in Europe are indeed young men. But as the TIME’s Karl Vick wrote in September, many of the men are fleeing the same enemy nations across the world find themselves up against.
“Placed one atop the other on a map, the number of people moving to join Syria’s civil war would appear as a barely visible black thread in the wide, wide arrow pointing out from the country: 20,000 people going in against 4-million headed out. And while most of the foreign fighters are young men, the same is true of those fleeing the fighting. Many doubtless are escaping conscription into the Syrian armed forces, which President Bashar Assad in a July speech admitted faces major manpower shortages. Almost all are a vanguard for families waiting to follow them. You don’t send a mother or a grandfather to scout a route to a new home. You send the hardiest and least vulnerable—males in their late teens to middle age.”
[JR: My bold]

and

2. 'The United Nations has registered over 4.2 million Syrian refugees, a step in seeking asylum from other countries, and has a demographic snapshot of about half of them. Of the 2.1 million registered in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon there’s a pretty even split in gender: about 50.5% are women and 49.7% are men.'
http://time.com/4122186/syrian-refugees ... young-men/
-----

Yes, you are right. This is and was always pretty clear for, I believe, majority of people in EU, but this is not what we can hear from the main stream EU media.

JR8 wrote:Curious that these people are fleeing for 'safety'. I've been to Egypt on holiday many times, as have several of my relatives. I'd go again, in fact I was discussing that in passing with my wife just last week (she was also posted there for several years). So, their citizens are allegedly fleeing for safety, while we're chatting about going there for a holiday - seems a contradiction.
And we have also recently been on holiday to Lebanon, and we found it to be quite wonderful, disarmingly friendly, welcoming, and wouldn't hesitate to return. Unsafe? I didn't feel that even once, and my risk-radar is well attuned.
Jordan, I would visit without hesitation, I genuinely hope to, it's just one of those places I haven't got around to yet. Safety - it's probably safer than most big German cities right now.
But Iraq - yes that's 'too hot' for me now that I'm getting older and less intrepid. But I know it is still open for tourism and have read (1-2 years ago) the details of tours visiting there - just my wife said if I went, I'd be going alone lol.


Again, I agree. Clearly there is a huge economic factor in all these migrations. Nothing wrong in it but not at the expense of the host countries citizens. Such expense is imaginable for the safety reason but not because somebody would like to buy a new iphone.

JR8 wrote:
x9200 wrote:On a related note and after what happened in NY eve in Germany and many other EU countries, I hope there will be some awakening before the Europe is completely brain dead from this self-destructive political correctness.


Blair notoriously opened the flood-gates to non-EU immigration into the UK as he knew whom ever he facilitated citizenship to would then have a long-term 'debt/vote of gratitude' for his party, Labour; and specifically the logic was so large was immigration that Labour could thus not be voted out of power for a generation+. He would rule Labour and the country as some kind of God until the day a generation later he chose to retire.


Was/is this even realistic? How many immigrants he would need to let in for any significant election impact? Are the immigrants (1st gen. citizens) in the UK a disciplined electorate, I mean do they vote? Frankly, this sounds like a madman plan. Cultural enrichment is one thing but virtually destroying own society is of a different magnitude Or was he so naive to believe in a perfect assimilation?

JR8 wrote:And I think Merkel is mirroring very close to this plan in Germany. Her coalition is a fragile one and in the balance, 100's of k's of new grateful voters will keep her and her party in power for ever the logic goes.... but she wasn't counting on this back-lash it seems; probably why she ordered a news black-out on it: Inconvenient News?


I feel Merkel might just set a graveyard stone for EU, starting from the UK referendum later this year. People like her are pushing a reasonable otherwise part of the society in all the EU countries towards right/nationalistic wing extremest. This is why Pegida is getting more and more popular. This is also to some extent what happened during the last election in Poland. It's a more complex process not only involving the fear of a very different culture but it has also a lot to do about maintaining national identity.

I actually thought that Merkel's actions are based on this perpetual WW2 German guilt.

JR8 wrote:But lastly, as I perhaps said, when I have walked through such crowds of young men who seem to congregate outside German mainline/city railway station, including Munich, Dusseldorf, Cologne they have been apparently wholly male, and aged say 16-40. There is a lot of public drinking, and Middle-Eastern men drinking in public doesn't bode well does it? Plus lots of 'deals being done' [the used wraps on crack, and strips of foil are on the ground and plain to see]. It is an unnerving experience, especially at night, even as a 'pretty big white guy'.

And again, if the previous generation failed to integrate the immigrants, how it is supposed to happened now with those, that are even more extreme and more culturally different from any acceptable standards?

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Re: RE: Re: The causes of the current EU migrant crisis.

Postby x9200 » Mon, 11 Jan 2016 9:42 am

ecureilx wrote:
x9200 wrote:I believe it was not exaggerated but what is equally worse is self-censorship of the German main-stream media and idiots like the Cologne mayor (a woman!) advising women in a manner suggesting their were at fault too.

I don't think its the right word to say but ... looks like they are fxxxxxxd up big time.

I did see the part that said the German law allows deportation of anybody who has served 12 months or longer in prison.

There's no such thing as undesirable immigrant - for lesser crimes :(

The law can be changed, but regardless, I agree with the first statement. What is extremely annoying is that Merkel invites (literally) first all the immigrants and later tries to made all the other countries to pay for it.

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Re: The causes of the current EU migrant crisis.

Postby JR8 » Tue, 12 Jan 2016 12:49 am

x9200 wrote: Yes, you are right. This is and was always pretty clear for, I believe, majority of people in EU, but this is not what we can hear from the main stream EU media.


Of course, but then the whole strategy of the EUs creation is based upon deceiving the people. Perhaps you recall the Jean Monnet quote (the architect/strategist of the creation of the EU) addressing exactly that fact...

x9200 wrote: Clearly there is a huge economic factor in all these migrations. Nothing wrong in it but not at the expense of the host countries citizens. Such expense is imaginable for the safety reason but not because somebody would like to buy a new iphone.


Agreed. I would far prefer that the EU retained some kind of criteria/choice as to who it took in. I appreciate that figures far less during humanitarian crises, but I don't consider that this genuinely is one. And if it were one, I don't think importing it en-masse into Europe is any kind of answer.

re: Blair immigration policies:
x9200 wrote:Was/is this even realistic? How many immigrants he would need to let in for any significant election impact? Are the immigrants (1st gen. citizens) in the UK a disciplined electorate, I mean do they vote? Frankly, this sounds like a madman plan. Cultural enrichment is one thing but virtually destroying own society is of a different magnitude Or was he so naive to believe in a perfect assimilation?


It's mainstream opinion to consider Blair as having been maniacal, quite a one-off. A pathological liar... which is why the play on his name's spelling as 'Bliar' is so common-place, I expect just about everyone (UK) knows who/what that is a reference to. A good part of that is down to how this devout Catholic faked a dossier ['The dodgy dossier' as is it is popularly known in the media] to justify going to war in the Middle-East.
I think the strategy re: immigration was let them in, and house them in concentrated areas. Give them lots of benefits (hand-outs) so they're reliant on the state. Have local 'community leaders' (from the immigrants background/culture) act as interfaces vs the state. Then use those community leaders to gerrymander the immigrants votes, down to the level of going door to door and collecting the ballot papers, AND then filling them in [example 1, below]. Madman or someone who has some kind of Messiah-complex.... hmmm.
I don't think he was concerned about longer-tern assimilation, the immediate goal was staying in power 'forever'.


x9200 wrote:I feel Merkel might just set a graveyard stone for EU, starting from the UK referendum later this year. People like her are pushing a reasonable otherwise part of the society in all the EU countries towards right/nationalistic wing extremest. This is why Pegida is getting more and more popular. This is also to some extent what happened during the last election in Poland. It's a more complex process not only involving the fear of a very different culture but it has also a lot to do about maintaining national identity.
I actually thought that Merkel's actions are based on this perpetual WW2 German guilt.


If Merkel gets free-rein to continue on this path then yes I agree with you. Like I said when we lived there neo-Nazi rallies were commonplace [ie every few weeks]. And though identifying as such is illegal, no one could be in any, any, doubt that's what they were. It is a powder-keg (ie. barrel of explosives) waiting to blow.
I think a part of the EU is about destroying national identity. I.e. to succeed per the plan the EU has to do that. After all the whole first justification for the EU was to stop Germany invading it's neighbours, again... and what better starting point than to dilute into non-existence a sense of national identity: 'We are all Europeans now'. It won't work, as memories are still fresh to past attempts to attain German hegemony over Europe.... not least in Poland!
Hence as in Poland, and as with Spain, Greece, Portugal etc., anyone who resists gets Berlin's political tanks sent in [Schaueble etc] with threats of being crushed into oblivion.
I think the 'WW2 guilt' thing has passed it's sell-by date. It reigned for a long time but IMHO the German youth have had enough of it and just want to move on, and I can't say I blame them...


x9200 wrote:And again, if the previous generation failed to integrate the immigrants, how it is supposed to happened now with those, that are even more extreme and more culturally different from any acceptable standards?


As long as they don't integrate, they can be controlled and 'bought'. That is a very worrying aspect of the plan IMHO...



'Example 1', referenced above:
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/11 ... hell-fire/
Novemeber-2015
'Thousands of Muslims in Birmingham were told that they would burn in hell fire unless they voted for the Labour party, a court has heard.'
'Do it or do not do it: You will regret both' - Kierkegaard

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Re: The causes of the current EU migrant crisis.

Postby x9200 » Wed, 13 Jan 2016 9:13 am

I guess I was never interested enough in the politics to have my opinions better crystallized, but what you said seem to make a lot of sense. For majority of the politician, people and what they promise to them are just a tool to get more power and money, so for the lack of something better some manipulations or deceptions, like it or not, are a part of the landscape. The problems start if what they do is gross, both in the category of deception and how do they treat their electorate. What is happening around the immigration crisis is like they wanted to say, you are unethical, ungrateful idiots refusing the immigrants in. This sort of attitude makes you really wonder, if indeed, this all mess is not about the immigrants votes. It's just counterlogical to invite them all to EU instead of trying to solve the problems outside (what would surely be cheaper too).

I also agree a part of the EU plan is to destroy the national identity but it seems again pretty obvious that some non-zero equilibrium should be the target. The components of the identity are the history, the culture, language. This has to stay, unless one's final goal is a sterilized society (a very long term goal anyway). Farage says that the union should NOT be a political union. This may appear as spot-on but I think it is pretty short-sighted. For war free, friendly Europe some mechanism of wealth control/distribution may be needed, at least temporary. This is difficult to imagine to be completely separated from the politics.

I think the German hegemony grows significantly in the absence of other big countries pro-active participation in shaping up EU. The UK and France have heaps of their own problems and less incentives to mess around. I believe German economy benefits a lot from the political status quo.


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