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How long do you think COVID19 will last

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abbby
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How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by abbby » Mon, 16 Mar 2020 10:47 am

How long do you think COVID 19 will last?
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Mon, 16 Mar 2020 12:25 pm

Personally, I think it will go from Pandemic to endemic just like the annual flu that goes around.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by bgd » Mon, 16 Mar 2020 2:01 pm

We have already seen a big drop in cases in China. I reckon Asia will lead the way in recovering as they seem to be in managing it. Time frame, don't know. Let's see how things look in a month.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by Spanisheyes » Tue, 24 Mar 2020 3:36 pm

Not anytime soon for sure.. the virus keeps spreading as time goes by.. how scary! :shock:

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by woonkwonk » Tue, 24 Mar 2020 4:14 pm

depending on what you mean.
usually takes two years to adapt to zoonotic infections

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Wed, 25 Mar 2020 1:41 pm

bgd wrote:
Mon, 16 Mar 2020 2:01 pm
We have already seen a big drop in cases in China. I reckon Asia will lead the way in recovering as they seem to be in managing it. Time frame, don't know. Let's see how things look in a month.
Since 19 March they are starting to see the 2nd wave. Especially in Beijing. Those who when overseas and had extended their holidays because of the virus are now returning. From 19 March through 22 March the have had 165 new infections, all imported by returning citizens most coming from the UK. The number rose each day for three consecutive days and then a slight drop.

Updated Now 212 new infections from 19th to 24th March. Numbers below.....
March 24 (GMT)
47 new cases and 4 new deaths in China
March 22 (GMT)
39 new cases and 9 new deaths in China
46 new cases, 6 new deaths (5 in Hubei), and 504 new discharges occurred in China on March 21, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. For the 4th day in a row, no new confirmed or suspected cases have been reported in Wuhan and in Hubei [source]
March 21 (GMT)
41 new cases, 7 new deaths (all in Hubei), and 590 new discharges occurred in China on March 20, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. For the 3rd day in a row, no new confirmed or suspected cases have been reported in Wuhan and in Hubei [source]
March 20 (GMT)
39 new cases, 3 new deaths (2 in Hubei), and 730 new discharges occurred in China on March 19, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. For the second day in a row, no new confirmed or suspected cases have been reported in Wuhan and in Hubei [source] All new cases were imported from overseas (no new domestically transmitted infections for the second consecutive day)
March 19 (GMT)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/china/

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by PNGMK » Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:31 pm

1. Think of it like HIV rather than the flu maybe. We still have no vaccine for HIV.
2. Think of it as something where unique nations like Singapore and Taiwan and HK and maybe Australia or Tasmania or the South Island of NZ can certify themselves as "Covid 19 free". Does it provide an advantage?
3. We just saw globalisation end for a few years. It's back to isolation and nation blocs.
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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by Max Headroom » Thu, 26 Mar 2020 9:17 am

Paradoxically, flattening the curve will prolong the whole Covid episode. But it's a prerequisite if we're not going to overwhelm our medical care.

My guess is that Covid will remain an issue until at least the end of the year, whilst we get closer to herd immunity.

There will be outbreak pockets here and there afterwards, however, I suspect.

Above scenario applies provided:

1. We don't see an Italian-esque increase in cases yet.
2. The bugger doesn't mutate into a more virulent form.

Meanwhile, clearly, the economic fall-out will reverberate longer.

À propos, banyak kudos to TPTB for their handling of the thing.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by sundaymorningstaple » Thu, 26 Mar 2020 1:29 pm

I reckon it is going to go from pandemic to endemic by end of the year.

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Re: How long do you think COVID19 will last

Post by BBCDoc » Sat, 28 Mar 2020 8:44 am

The asymptomatic spread is the real PITA. Most viruses have a short sub clinical period and sick people can be isolated or treated quickly.

Hoping some Pharma can find a cheap repurposed drug with 75% efficacy to help. In the absence of a vaccine, that will help a lot.

Easier to deal with short term side effects of a drug than Long term side effects of a rushed shitty vaccine


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